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深度*公司*华贸物流(603128):集运运价走高Q3营收大幅增长 干线成本波动毛利率相对下降

Depth* Company* Huamao Logistics (603128): Freight rates increased, Q3 revenue increased sharply, main line costs fluctuated, gross margin decreased relatively

boc international ·  Nov 13, 2024 07:32

In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 14.417 billion yuan, +38.64% year-on-year, and net profit to mother of 0.472 billion yuan, or -16.31% year-on-year. 2024Q3 achieved revenue of 5.817 billion yuan, +51.54% year over year, and net profit to mother of 0.169 billion yuan, -20.55% year over year. The company's marketing-driven strategy continued to gain strength in 2024, setting up new overseas operating outlets in South America, Central Asia, etc. At the same time, overall freight rates this year were higher than the same period last year, so revenue increased markedly, and large fluctuations in mainline costs caused the company's overall business gross margin to decline relatively. Optimistic about the company's direct customer strategy to smooth cycle fluctuations and maintain the company's shareholding rating.

Key points to support ratings

Higher freight rates combined with the establishment of new overseas operating outlets, and the company achieved a significant increase in Q3 revenue. Disturbed by the Red Sea incident, the average value of the CCFI and SCFI freight indices for the third quarter was 1991 and 3082, up 127.3% and 212.7% year-on-year from the same period last year. At the same time, since 2024, the company has established and operated new overseas outlets in Kazakhstan, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Nigeria, etc., to continuously improve product stability and coverage. The shipping headquarters's co-ordinated contract capacity cooperation model continues to advance, and air freight has consolidated superior core capacity such as European and American routes, and enhanced product portfolio capabilities. The company's revenue and business volume trends are consistent with the market. 2024Q3 revenue was 5.817 billion yuan, up 51.54% year on year; revenue for the first three quarters was 14.417 billion yuan, up 38.64% year on year.

Major fluctuations in mainline costs were compounded by the upfront cost investment of outlets, and the company's net profit to mother declined. In 2024Q3, the company's net profit to mother was 0.169 billion yuan, down 20.55% year on year; the total net profit for the first three quarters was 0.472 billion yuan, down 16.31% year on year. In the first three quarters of this year, on the one hand, the supply of international logistics mainline capacity remained tight, leading to large fluctuations in freight rates. Large fluctuations in mainline costs have led to a relative decline in the company's overall business gross margin. On the other hand, the company promoted the layout of overseas outlets, leading to an increase in upfront investment costs, which led to a decline in net profit. However, the company continues to promote the direct customer strategy and is expected to continue to upgrade its business model in the future. In the long run, the company is expected to improve operational resilience and achieve performance recovery through smooth cycle fluctuations in the direct customer strategy.

Looking forward to the future, the company's operating efficiency is expected to improve after international air and sea freight rates stabilize, and the gradual clearance of the industry will help create a strong situation. While the company's business volume increased sharply year-on-year this year, the main reason the total gross profit did not increase is that some direct customers won the bid for the full-chain logistics service, which provided a “package (volume) package price” double package business. The cost increase was far higher than the revenue increase. The company's honest operation carried the pressure brought about by rising freight rates to complete contract execution. This phenomenon will gradually improve with the smooth operation of international freight rates and obtain better benefits. The current freight forwarding industry environment has profoundly changed. The entire industry has entered a period of strong elimination. The performance was particularly obvious in the first half of '24. In the future, the industry is expected to concentrate on leading companies that can provide a full chain of logistics services, and accelerate the formation of a strong and strong situation.

valuations

Due to the increase in the company's main line costs this year, we lowered the company's profit forecast. We expect net profit to be 0.678/0.792/0.896 billion yuan for 2024-2026, 10.0%/+16.8%/+13.2% year-on-year, and EPS is 0.52/0.60/0.68 yuan/share, corresponding to PE 12.0/10.3/9.1 times, respectively, to maintain the company's holdings increase rating.

The main risks faced by ratings

Global economic fluctuations, shipping market fluctuations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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