10月食品价格（占CPI的一半左右）同比上涨了10.87%，高于9月的9.24%。其中，蔬菜价格涨幅特别大，比去年同期猛涨了42.18%。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心通胀率在10月上涨了3.74%，比9月的3.56%略有上升。india's inflation rate soared to a 14-month high, with expectations of a rate cut cooling. In October, the food inflation rate rose from 9.24% in September to 10.87%.
India's inflation rate reached a 14-month high in October, exceeding the upper limit of the central bank's target range, providing more reasons for the Reserve Bank of India to delay rate cuts.
On Tuesday, November 12, the Indian Statistics Office data showed that the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 6.21% year-on-year, exceeding economists' forecast of 5.9%, compared to September's inflation rate of 5.49%.
In October, food prices (accounting for about half of the CPI) rose by 10.87% year-on-year, higher than September's 9.24%. Among them, vegetable prices saw a particularly large increase, surging by 42.18% compared to the same period last year. The core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 3.74% in October, slightly up from 3.56% in September.
The Reserve Bank of India had previously expected October inflation to remain high, citing statistical factors and food price fluctuations. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das mentioned last week:
"Due to the rise in global commodity prices and the continuing impact of geopolitical conflicts, there are 'significant upward risks' to inflation. Therefore, even though the central bank currently maintains a neutral monetary policy stance, a rate cut will not be considered in the short term."
He emphasized last month:
"A rate cut at present is 'very risky,' and only when inflation continues to decline to the target level of 4%, will the consideration of easing monetary policy be entertained."
Chief Economist Upasna Bhardwaj of Kotak Mahindra Bank stated:
"Due to the continuous rise in food prices, it is expected that even in the next data release, overall inflation will remain above 5%, until seasonal factors come into play, pushing inflation lower."
The next policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of India will be held on December 6th. Bloomberg Economics believes:
"The renewed rise in consumer inflation in October is in line with the hawkish comments of RBI Governor Das. It is expected that the RBI will maintain its current neutral monetary policy in December and will not cut rates immediately."
Economist Sakshi Gupta of HDFC Bank stated:
"The latest inflation data indicates that it is highly unlikely for a rate cut at the policy meeting in December. Considering the increasing global uncertainty, even the February policy meeting next year may not necessarily result in a rate cut, it's not set in stone."
Furthermore, Trump's victory last week has made global rate cut expectations more complex, causing many economists to postpone the rate cut expectations from December to next year.
