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欧洲央行管委Rehn:降息步伐仍不确定 利率或在明年上半年达到中性水平

European Central Bank Governor Rehn: The pace of interest rate cuts is still uncertain. Interest rates may reach neutral levels in the first half of next year.

Zhitong Finance ·  Nov 12 21:33

European Central Bank Governing Council member and Governor of the Bank of Finland, Olli Rehn, stated on Tuesday that the European Central Bank will further cut interest rates, and the deposit rate may reach the so-called neutral level in the first half of next year.

China Fortune Finance APP has learned that Olli Rehn, a member of the European Central Bank Governing Council and Governor of the Bank of Finland, said on Tuesday that the European Central Bank will further cut interest rates, and the deposit rate may reach the so-called neutral level in the first half of next year.

With inflation slowing down, the European Central Bank has cut interest rates three times this year, and the market has fully absorbed that the European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates at each meeting before at least April next year.

At a conference in London, Rehn stated, "The direction of interest rate changes is clear."

"But the speed and extent of the rate cuts will depend on our overall assessment of three factors at each meeting: inflation outlook, dynamics of potential inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmission."

He mentioned that lowering the deposit rate to 3.25% may bring it to the so-called neutral level.

"Current market data and simple (or simplified) numbers seem to suggest that we will emerge from the restrictive range at some point in the winter of 2025," Rehn said, "But this is just my observation, not a commitment."

"The issue of 'neutral' is that it is an estimate, not an exact level, so it is difficult to determine a target, especially when policymakers have almost no consensus on the specific location of this level."

Rehn stated that the Bank of Finland's estimate of the real interest rate or the interest rate adjusted for inflation is between 0.2% and 0.8%, if the inflation rate is 2%, it means that the deposit interest rate will be between 2.2% and 2.8%.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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