One thing we could say about the analysts on Olaplex Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:OLPX) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.
Following the latest downgrade, the current consensus, from the ten analysts covering Olaplex Holdings, is for revenues of US$418m in 2025, which would reflect a noticeable 3.7% reduction in Olaplex Holdings' sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are anticipated to crater 25% to US$0.048 in the same period. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$475m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.099 in 2025. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a large cut to earnings per share numbers as well.
It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 10% to US$2.29.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 3.0% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 7.7% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.9% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Olaplex Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for Olaplex Holdings. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that Olaplex Holdings' revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. After such a stark change in sentiment from analysts, we'd understand if readers now felt a bit wary of Olaplex Holdings.
Uncomfortably, our automated valuation tool also suggests that Olaplex Holdings stock could be overvalued following the downgrade. Shareholders could be left disappointed if these estimates play out. Learn why, and examine the assumptions that underpin our valuation by visiting our free platform here to learn more about our valuation approach.
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
