According to the Securities Times app, Guolian Securities released research reports stating that the intensity of the subsidy program for replacing old products with new ones in this round is comparable to the promotion of household appliances in rural areas. Starting from September, the policy implementation has entered the realization phase. Since late August, weekly retail sales growth has been on the rise, with a prominent elasticity in air conditioners; overseas interest rate cuts in Europe and America resonate with inventory replenishment cycles, demand is bottoming out and improving, with emerging markets and OBM continuing to contribute incrementally. The policy is bullish on structural upgrades, with domestic average prices steadily rising. Additionally, most regions have extended the detailed rules for replacing old products with new ones beyond the 8 major categories of essential household appliances to optional smart home appliances such as sweepers/floor washers, supporting penetration space and elasticity. Coupled with Singles' Day sales, recent sales performance is outstanding. There is potential for product and policy cycles to resonate; furthermore, leading overseas market shares are steadily increasing, indicating a trend for brands to expand globally.

Guolian Securities' main points are as follows:

White Goods: The intensity of the subsidy program for replacing old products with new ones in this round is comparable to the promotion of household appliances in rural areas. Starting from September, the policy implementation has entered the realization phase. Since late August, weekly retail sales growth has been on the rise, with a prominent elasticity in air conditioners; overseas interest rate cuts in Europe and America resonate with inventory replenishment cycles, demand is bottoming out and improving, with emerging markets and OBM continuing to contribute incrementally. The policy is bullish on structural upgrades, with domestic average prices steadily rising. There is potential for domestic elasticity, leading export orders maintaining rapid growth, excellent financial statements, stable performance expectations, supportive subsequent operations. Recommended stocks include Midea Group (000333.SZ), Haier Smart Home (600690.SH), Gree Electric Appliances (000651.SZ), Hisense Home Appliances (000921.SZ), and others.

Brown Goods: There is still differentiation in the domestic and foreign sales prosperity of color TV sets, with domestic volume performance being flat. There are potential benefits in the future driven by the policy of replacing old products with new ones. Support from emerging markets boosts global shipment performance, with the global market size expected to be stable and growing in 2024. Meanwhile, the continuous realization of the logic of increasing global market share for domestic color TV leaders; the impact of panel price fluctuations on profitability is weakening, and product upgrades benefit profitability improvements. Recommendations include leading Hisense Visual Technology (600060.SH) and attention to TCL Electronics among others.

Small Appliances: Q3 focuses on launching new sweeping robots, further improving the cost-effectiveness of new products. In many regions, the detailed rules for replacing old products with new ones have expanded beyond the 8 major categories of essential household appliances to optional smart home appliances such as sweepers/floor washers, supporting penetration space and elasticity. Coupled with Singles' Day sales, recent sales performance is outstanding. There is potential for product and policy cycles to resonate; furthermore, leading overseas market shares are steadily increasing, indicating a trend for brands to expand globally. The recovery of optional product categories still depends on consumption prosperity, with the kitchen small appliances industry showing a turning point in Q1 2024. Although there may be fluctuations in industry prosperity and recovery slope in Q2, there has been some improvement month-on-month in July and August, making the turnaround opportunities worth paying attention to. Additionally, the structural opportunities brought by new product categories, channels, and overseas expansion are also worth watching. Recommended stocks include Roborock Technology (688169.SH), Ecovacs Robotics, focusing on Xiaomi Technology, Bear Electric Appliance, among others.

Later Periods: Since September 24th, the central government's policies on total quantity/real estate relaxation have been significantly strengthened and quickly implemented. Fiscal policies have been determined positively, and restrictions on new real estate purchases have been relaxed in first-tier cities. The real estate sector's valuation has rapidly recovered, with subsequent transaction completions expected to improve, driving up valuations and performance for later periods. The impact of channel changes on market share is worth noting, as leaders may harvest increments in sinking channels and during the rise of entire home channel processes. New product categories are likely to achieve better growth. Recommended stocks include strong alpha targets Vatti Corporation (002035.SZ), Gongniu Group (603195.SH), Hangzhou Robam Appliances (002508.SZ), with a focus on integrated stove companies.