Rehn周二在伦敦接受媒体采访时称，欧元区的通胀水平正在顺利下降，并且经济增长前景似乎正在减弱，这加强了12月降息的理由。Finnish central bank governor Olli Rehn said that the European Central Bank may cut interest rates in December and is likely to further reduce them, but decision-makers should still proceed cautiously and gradually. Rehn mentioned that inflation levels in the eurozone are smoothly decreasing, and the economic growth prospects seem to be weakening, which reinforces the case for a rate cut in December.
Caixin reported on November 12th (Editor Xia Junxiong), on Tuesday (November 12th) local time, Olli Rehn, member of the ECB's Governing Council and governor of the Finnish central bank, stated that the ECB may cut interest rates in December and is likely to further reduce them, but decision-makers should still proceed cautiously and gradually.
The European Central Bank has already reduced interest rates three times this year. The eurozone's three key interest rates, the refinancing rate, the marginal lending rate, and the deposit facility rate, are currently at 3.4%, 3.65%, and 3.25% respectively. Monetary policy makers have signaled that they will continue to cut rates at the December rate meeting, but the speed and extent of further action remain uncertain.
During a media interview in London on Tuesday, Rehn stated that inflation levels in the eurozone are smoothly decreasing, and the economic growth prospects seem to be weakening, which reinforces the case for a rate cut in December.
Looking ahead, Rehn stated that the direction of monetary policy is clear, but the speed and pace of rate cuts will depend on the upcoming information and the analysis of decision-makers.
The eurozone's economic growth rate in the third quarter slightly exceeded expectations. Preliminary data released by Eurostat showed that seasonally adjusted, the eurozone's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.4% in the third quarter of this year, while the EU's GDP grew by 0.3%.
At the same time, there has been a rebound in inflation in the eurozone, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the eurozone rising by 2% year-on-year in October, exceeding expectations and the previous value.
The above two sets of data provide additional reasons for hawkish officials, who are urging cautious implementation of further easing policies.
Regarding the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut by the european central bank in December, Rehn did not respond directly, only stating that the european central bank must have "operational flexibility".
However, Rehn expects that the european central bank may at some point next year lower interest rates to levels below the restrictive range. He emphasized that this is only his personal observation, not a commitment.
In October, Rehn stated that experts at the Bank of Finland currently estimate the natural interest rate for the euro area to be in the range of 0.2% to 0.8%. The euro area's long-term inflation target is 2%, which means that the nominal neutral interest rate will be between 2.2% and 2.8%. The so-called neutral interest rate refers to the level of interest rates that neither stimulate nor restrain the economy.
With Trump being re-elected as President of the United States and the disintegration of the ruling coalition in Germany, the economic outlook for the euro area faces more uncertainties.
"Regarding the timeline for the impact of U.S. tariffs, it is expected to be medium to long term. We can only formulate monetary policy based on known, visible, and perceivable economic developments," said Rehn.
Editor/ping
