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Investors More Bullish on Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son (NYSE:NTB) This Week as Stock Rallies 4.6%, Despite Earnings Trending Downwards Over Past Year

Simply Wall St ·  Nov 12 20:13

If you want to compound wealth in the stock market, you can do so by buying an index fund. But you can significantly boost your returns by picking above-average stocks. To wit, the The Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited (NYSE:NTB) share price is 47% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 37% (not including dividends) in the same period. That's a solid performance by our standards! In contrast, the longer term returns are negative, since the share price is 2.8% lower than it was three years ago.

After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Over the last twelve months, Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son actually shrank its EPS by 4.1%.

We don't think that the decline in earnings per share is a good measure of the business over the last twelve months. It makes sense to check some of the other fundamental data for an explanation of the share price rise.

We haven't seen Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son increase dividend payments yet, so the yield probably hasn't helped drive the share higher. The slightly diminished revenue is not particularly impressive, at a glance, so that doesn't explain the share price boost.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

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NYSE:NTB Earnings and Revenue Growth November 12th 2024

If you are thinking of buying or selling Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son, it has a TSR of 55% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 55% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 9% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son you should be aware of.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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