三季度动销改善主要原因为：一是三季度本身属于榨菜消费的传统旺季，公司在旺季加大了终端销售的费用投放，增加推广活动；二是公司上半年对销售组织架构及考核模式进行了调整，销售考核更注重结果导向，一定程度上激励了销售人员完成目标积极性；三是调整优化经销商后，经销商对比原来更大的市场运营更有动力，促进了终端市场铺货动销；四是公司在三季度取消了终端2 元价格带产品的调货配比限制，根据各地市场需求及时上架终端2 元价格带产品。The company's sales improved in the third quarter, and the net profit growth rate turned positive
The company announced the 2024 three-quarter report, achieving revenue of 1.962 billion yuan/ +0.56%; net profit to mother of 0.671 billion yuan/ +1.74%. 2024Q3 achieved revenue of 0.657 billion yuan/ +6.81%; net profit to mother of 0.223 billion yuan/ +17.88%. The company's gross profit margin was 52.63%, up 1.90pct year over year. In terms of two fees, the sales expense ratio was 13.86%, or 0.45pct; the management expense ratio was 3.49%, or 0.05pct. Net profit margin was 34.18%, up 0.40pct. In terms of products, mustard products increased slightly in the first three quarters, and the decline in the radish and kimchi categories narrowed, and mustard, radish, and kimchi products all increased in the third quarter; in terms of channels, household consumption channels and catering channels all grew to a certain extent. The restaurant side had a low base, and the overall growth rate in the first three quarters was around 30%.
The company adjusts sales assessments to focus on results, and the terminal market adjusts the product structure in a timely manner
The main reasons for the improvement in sales in the third quarter are: first, the third quarter itself is the traditional peak season for mustard consumption. Second, the company increased the cost of terminal sales and increased promotion activities during the peak season; second, the company adjusted the sales organization structure and assessment model in the first half of the year, and sales assessments paid more attention to results, which encouraged sales staff to achieve their goals to a certain extent; third, after adjusting and optimizing dealers, dealers were more motivated than the original larger market operation, which promoted sales in the terminal market; fourth, the company lifted distribution and distribution restrictions for products with a terminal price of 2 yuan in the third quarter, according to various regions Market demand promptly launched terminals with a price of 2 yuan and products.
The company strengthens channel management to be closer to the actual needs of the terminal market
The company strengthened channel support and increased offline promotion; focused on the main business, explored the “Mustard+” product matrix, continuously adjusted the product structure, improved the product structure, and adjusted the product price band coverage in a timely manner according to market demand; compounded the decline in raw material purchase prices this year and the cost decline in the second half of the year, making joint efforts to help the company recover its performance in the third quarter. The cost effect will continue until the first half of next year. As the company increases its terminal sales and investment efforts, sales adjustments are made in a timely manner, and the peak season follows the trend, which is better able to ease the pressure on early sales.
Profit forecasts and investment advice
We expect the company to achieve revenue of 2.504/2.69/2.894 billion yuan in 24/25/26, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 2.2%/7.5%/7.6%, net profit of 0.848/0.872/0.945 billion yuan respectively, corresponding EPS of 0.73/0.76/0.82 yuan, the current stock price corresponding to PE is 19.9/19.3/17.8 times, respectively, and the company's current PE is 21 times, maintaining the company's “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Sluggish consumption, climate and other factors, the risk of vegetable head production reduction and cost fluctuations, falling short of expectations, mergers and acquisitions, expansion of business risks, food safety risks, increased industry competition, etc.
