据悉，公司非制冷剂业务在2022年达到盈利高点，此后两年产品价格持续大幅下跌，与之相对应的是制冷剂业务，在经历前两年的调整后，于今年大幅走强，两大业务板块景气不同步让巨化股份业绩变难以预测。1. It is expected that refrigerant prices will rebound across the board in Q4, while non-refrigerant prices stabilize; 2. Optimistic about next year's performance prospects, pointing out that opportunities and challenges coexist; 3. Next year, the upward trend of refrigerant prices is strong, and the competitive landscape has improved to some extent; 4. Non-refrigerants are still in surplus, but after two years of sharp declines, the risks have been released.
Financial Associated Press, November 12th (Reporter: Luo Yichen) Starting from September, refrigerant export prices and prices of some stagnant varieties have accelerated their upward trend. It is expected that the actual prices of fluorine refrigerant products will fully rebound in the fourth quarter. In addition, some chemical products of the company have experienced nearly two years of decline and have begun to stabilize. At the 2024 third-quarter performance briefing, Zhejiang Juhua (600160.SH) General Manager Han Jinming outlooked the Q4 market.
Benefiting from the allocation of third-generation refrigerant quotas, prices of multiple refrigerant varieties have been rising steadily. This refrigerant leader, with a market cap exceeding 60 billion yuan, has seen a significant rebound in performance over the past three quarters. However, at the same time, the company's performance has been dragged down by non-refrigerant business, causing many investors to question its performance falling short of expectations. Against this backdrop, balancing the two major businesses of refrigerants and non-refrigerants has become an urgent issue for the company's management.
It is reported that the company's non-refrigerant business reached a profit peak in 2022. In the two years that followed, product prices experienced a sharp decline. In contrast, the refrigerant business, after two years of adjustments, has seen significant strength this year. The asynchronous prosperity of the two major business sectors has made Zhejiang Juhua's performance difficult to predict.
In Han Jinming's view, with the ongoing strength of the refrigerant business and the release of risks in the non-refrigerant business, the company's prospects for next year will see opportunities outweighing challenges. At the performance briefing, he elaborated on the two major challenges and three major opportunities that may be faced next year.
Regarding challenges, Han Jinming acknowledges that on one hand, the current situation and market still have significant uncertainties, and on the other hand, the contradiction of excess capacity in the non-refrigerant business is difficult to resolve in the short term, leading to continued intense competition.
However, at the same time, Han Jinming emphasizes that the company will also encounter three major opportunities next year. 'Firstly, the implementation of third-generation refrigerant quotas this year has established an upward trend in product prices, shifting from quota competition in previous years. It is expected that the average price of fluorine refrigerant products will continue to rise next year, further increasing the business and profitability ratio. Secondly, the macro level is reinforcing countercyclical adjustment policies, which are expected to improve the company's external competitive environment. Thirdly, the non-fluorine refrigerant business of the company has undergone a sharp decline in the past two years, with market risks being adequately released. At the same time, with the expansion of the refrigerant business and the increase in profit proportion, the impact of the non-fluorine refrigerant business on the company's performance is decreasing.'
Currently, among the main refrigerant varieties, the third-generation refrigerant R32 is the most concerning. Data shows that Zhejiang Juhua and its subsidiary companies have a total annual production capacity of 0.19 million tons of R32, with a nationally approved production quota accounting for 44.99% of the country, making it the absolute leader in the field.
In the competition for the quota of the third-generation refrigerant, Zhejiang Juhua once acquired 51% equity of Zibo Feiyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. for 1.394 billion yuan at the end of last year, which achieved revenue of 2.122 billion yuan and net income of 0.297 billion yuan from January to October this year, making a certain contribution to the performance of the listed company. When asked to evaluate this acquisition at the meeting, the company's management replied, 'This acquisition has met expectations'.
