Jingu Finance News | Soochow's research reports point out that PICC P&C (02328) held an investor open day in 2024, focusing on the theme of "Green Insurance Innovation: The Transformation and Upgrading of Electric Vehicle Insurance." The firm projects that by 2025, the scale of new energy vehicle insurance premiums will reach 194.7 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 20.1% of total auto insurance premiums; by 2030, the premium scale is expected to reach 482.1 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 37.1% of total auto insurance premiums. The new insurance 'Ten Guidelines' emphasize focusing on commercial insurance for new energy vehicles, deepening comprehensive reforms in auto insurance. The firm believes that for the P&C industry, new energy vehicles and self-driving cars signify a completely different development logic, requiring the insurance industry to reshape the auto insurance business model. According to the materials from the open day, the high claims ratio for new energy vehicle insurance is mainly due to: 1. The accident rate for new energy vehicles is approximately 2.5 times that of traditional fuel cars; 2. Vehicle factors: a high proportion of commercial vehicles; 3. Human factors: a high proportion of young customers; 4. Usage factors: high intensity of usage; 5. Difficulty in repairing new energy vehicles.
The firm further indicates that the current underwriting pressure faced by new energy vehicle models will gradually stabilize and return to normal as the new energy automobile market continues to develop. The difference in claims ratio between new energy self-owned vehicles aged over 5 years and fuel-powered self-owned vehicles is narrowing, indicating that there is further room for a decrease in claims ratio for new energy vehicles in the future. The firm believes that with the continuous increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the ongoing market-driven development of the automotive market, the claims ratio of new energy vehicle insurance is expected to gradually approach that of traditional fuel cars. The current accident rate has already decreased to a certain extent, with PICC P&C managing to achieve underwriting profitability in household commercial insurance for new energy vehicles from January to October 2024.
The bank maintains its profit forecast and expects the company's net income attributable to mother for 2024-26 to be 29.6, 32.3, and 34.5 billion yuan. As a cost-effective dividend target for both offense and defense, the bank maintains a "buy" rating.
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