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爱博医疗(688050):人工晶体渠道库存价差近乎补充完 视力保健业务盈利能力有改善潜力

Aibo Healthcare (688050): The intraocular lens channel inventory price difference almost completely complements the profitability of the vision care business and has the potential to improve the profitability of the vision care business

haitong sec ·  Nov 12

The company's revenue for the third quarter of 2024 was 0.39 billion yuan (up 49.11% year on year), net profit from mother was 0.11 billion yuan (up 23.38% year on year), and net profit from non-return to mother was 0.105 billion yuan (up 22.88% year on year).

The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.075 billion yuan (up 60.94% year on year), net profit to mother 0.318 billion yuan (up 26.04% year on year), after deducting non-return net profit of 0.304 billion yuan (up 27.41% year on year).

The company's third-quarter revenue increased 49% year over year, mainly due to growth in the vision care business, or contact lens business; net profit after deduction increased by nearly 23% year on year, thanks to double-digit growth in surgery and myopia prevention and control. From the profit side, the company's cost control is ideal. Among them, sales expenses fell a lot in the third quarter, partly due to the distribution fees of the holding instant retail company Miyuetomi, which had a total impact of about 18 million yuan in January-September from sales cost adjustments to operating costs.

Looking at the surgery business, the number of cataract surgeries in the industry is growing slowly or even declining, but the company's intraocular lens shipments have maintained a good growth rate; at the same time, due to the gradual implementation of domestic procurement, lens sales have increased more than the amount of money. In terms of channel inventory price differences, agents and hospital inventories have all been inventoried, and the price difference has almost been filled. The company determined that the fourth quarter will no longer have a relevant impact. In terms of myopia prevention and control, the growth of OK lenses has slowed, but defocus lenses have achieved relatively rapid growth, driving the growth rate. In terms of vision care business, the company's Tianyan factory has been profitable, but Youyoukang still did not reach the profit level in the third quarter.

However, under the collaborative management of the headquarters, we believe that the factory's profitability will improve in the fourth quarter or next year, and there is considerable potential for the future.

Profit forecasting and investment advice. We expect EPS to be 2.09, 2.68, and 3.46 yuan respectively in 24-26, with net profit growth rates of 30.1%, 28.6%, and 28.9%. Referring to comparable company valuations and considering the company's high prosperity and leading position in the ophthalmology industry, we will give the company 43-53 times PE in 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 89.72-110.58 yuan/share, giving the company 12-15 times PS in 2024, a reasonable value range of 92.64-115.80 yuan/share, combining the two valuation methods. The company's reasonable value range is 92.64-110.58 yuan/share, giving it an “superior to the market” rating.

Risk warning. Contact lens releases have fallen short of expectations, prices of collected products have declined, and the competitive landscape has intensified.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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