2024年云南地区电力供给充沛，该行预计公司Q3电解铝产量同比增长。根据山东宏桥信用评级报告，截至2023年底，云南文山电解铝项目一期已经建成投产，设计产能107.40万吨/年，已于2022年达产；云南文山电解铝项目二期95万吨/年产能已基本建成，部分产能于2023年三季度陆续投产，若该项目电力供应充足，剩余产能预计2024年下半年陆续完成置换投产。云南红河项目规划产能193万吨/年，项目已于2023年8月开工建设，一期约96.43万吨/年电解铝产能计划2024年建成，剩余产能依据电力供应情况再作相关建设计划。Guolian Securities released a research report stating that it maintains a "buy" rating for Chinahongqiao (01378), with an expected net income attributable to the mother of 19.59/21.27/22.59 billion yuan for 2024-2026, a year-on-year growth of 70.93%/8.58%/6.22%. The company's subsidiary Shandong Hongqiao achieved operating income of 110.068 billion yuan in 2024 Q1-Q3, a 12.47% increase year-on-year; net income was 15.754 billion yuan, a 141.43% increase year-on-year. Specifically, in 2024 Q3 alone, operating income reached 38.023 billion yuan, a 13.86% increase year-on-year; net income was 5.914 billion yuan, a 36.95% increase year-on-year.
Guolian Securities' main points are as follows:
In Yunnan, with ample electrical utilities supply during the flood season, the electrolytic aluminum production in Q3 is expected to increase year-on-year.
In 2024, the electrical utilities supply in Yunnan is sufficient. The bank predicts that the company's Q3 electrolytic aluminum production will increase year-on-year. According to the credit rating report of Shandong Hongqiao, as of the end of 2023, Phase I of the Yunnan Wenshan electrolytic aluminum project has been completed and put into operation, with a designed capacity of 1.074 million tons per year, which started production in 2022; Phase II of the Yunnan Wenshan electrolytic aluminum project with a capacity of 0.95 million tons per year has been basically completed, and some of the capacity will gradually go into production in the third quarter of 2023. If the project has sufficient electrical utilities supply, the remaining capacity is expected to be put into production sequentially in the second half of 2024. The Yunnan Honghe project plans a capacity of 1.93 million tons per year, and the project started construction in August 2023. Phase I with approximately 0.9643 million tons per year of electrolytic aluminum capacity is planned to be completed in 2024, with additional capacity based on the electricity supply situation for further construction planning.
The decline in coal and prebaked anode prices is beneficial to the company's profit growth.
The average price of electrolytic aluminum rose by 5.9% year-on-year in 2024 Q1-Q3; the average price of electrolytic aluminum in 2024 Q3 increased by 3.9% year-on-year. In terms of costs, the average prices of prebaked anodes/thermal coal in 2024 Q1-Q3 decreased by 22.9%/10.6% year-on-year, while in 2024 Q3, the average prices of prebaked anodes/thermal coal decreased by 11.9%/2.0% year-on-year. As the coal and anodes needed for the company's electrolytic aluminum production are externally purchased, the decline in raw material prices is favorable for the company's profit growth.
The price of alumina has significantly increased, resulting in higher profits for the alumina sector.
Since 2024, due to factors such as tight supply of upstream bauxite, continuous disruptions from alumina plant maintenance, the supply of alumina has remained tight; catalyzed alumina prices have risen significantly, leading to a substantial increase in profits for the alumina sector. According to SMM, the theoretical profit of alumina in 2024 Q3 is approximately 1069 yuan per ton, an increase of 886 yuan per ton year-on-year, and an increase of 188 yuan per ton month-on-month. The company adheres to constructing an integrated industry chain both upstream and downstream, actively integrating overseas bauxite resources, continuously improving its upstream alumina business. As of 2024 H1, the company's total annual alumina production capacity is 19.5 million tons. While ensuring the stability of its own costs, the company further increases profits through external sales of alumina.
