特朗普此前多次扬言，在他的第二个任期内，要对来自所有国家的进口产品征收10%的关税，对来自中国的进口产品征收60%的关税，并且他不在意中方可能会对美国产品也增加关税的反制措施。这是他在美国建立制造业计划的一部分。Canadian mining tycoon Robert Friedland stated that since the era of 'Trump 1.0,' China has reduced its dependence on the US economy, making it more capable of resisting the tariff policies proposed by Trump. According to the calculations of Kai Tak Macro, the demand for Chinese goods in the US accounts for less than 3% of China's GDP.
Canadian mining tycoon, Chairman of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (IVN.CA) Robert Friedland stated on Tuesday that since the era of 'Trump 1.0,' China has reduced its exposure to the US economy, making it more capable of resisting the proposed tariff policies of the elected president.$Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (IVN.CA)$Chairman Robert Friedland of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (IVN.CA) stated that since the era of 'Trump 1.0,' China has reduced its exposure to the US economy, making it more capable of resisting the proposed tariff policies by this elected president.
He mentioned in an interview, 'China still has a lot of cards to play. China's exports to the US are much lower than in the previous Trump administration. Therefore, compared to seven or eight years ago, their sensitivity to US tariffs is much lower.'
Trump has repeatedly threatened to impose a 10% tariff on imported products from all countries during his second term, a 60% tariff on products from China, and he is indifferent to China's possible retaliatory measures of increasing tariffs on US products. This is part of his plan to boost US manufacturing industry.
According to Kai Tak Macro's calculations, US demand for Chinese goods accounts for less than 3% of China's GDP. The company predicts that China will only start to feel the adverse effects of tariffs by the second half of next year.
Friedland indicates that China is watching to see if Trump will follow through on his threats, and they will propose a policy response.
"China is still taking a series of measures to stimulate consumer demand, to some extent, to get rid of the problem of local government debt. I think, in the next three to five years, the Chinese economy still looks very stable," he added.
Other analysts also pointed out that in the long term, any potential tariff increase will not cause significant direct damage to the Chinese economy. In addition, the U.S. shift towards tariffs and isolationism may lead to Washington's confrontation with traditional allies, providing China with an opportunity to break through Western technology blockades.
Moreover, this 'future risk' may also bring a wave of bullish sentiment before Donald Trump officially takes office. Joe Lupton, a senior global economist at JPMorgan, said that before tariffs are implemented, there may be real front-end preparations as companies try to prepare in advance. Therefore, by the first quarter, global manufacturing, especially Chinese manufacturing, may experience slight growth.
Cathay Pacific Macro also pointed out that Trump's return may temporarily drive China's export expansion, as U.S. importers rush to increase purchases before tariffs are imposed.
On the other hand, Friedman stated that some foreign investors are seeking to increase their investments in Chinese stocks, as the pricing of Chinese stocks is more attractive than some U.S. stocks. He also believes that having people around Trump like 'Elon Musk' and Silicon Valley entrepreneurs is a positive move.
He said, 'Trump may manage his second government like a true CEO.'
"Donald Trump has a lot of new people around him. If you can get a lot of attractive young people from the technology industry, I am optimistic about America's future," he added.
Editor/Rocky
