收入承压下行，防水占比提升。公司单3 季度收入同比下降24%，行业进一步承压之下，公司同比降幅与2 季度类似。分结构看，建筑涂料、保温节能、防水材料占主营收入比重分别为61%、22%、16%，对应收入增速分别为-33%、-25%、+40%，防水收入仍实现较快正增长。聚焦建筑涂料板块，工程涂料收入同比下降33%（销量同比下降35%）；家装涂料收入同比下降28%（销量同比下降14%）；配套材料收入同比下降36%，仍以工程涂料为主导，收入在建筑涂料中占比约80%。保温节能板块下滑幅度小于建筑涂料，收入同比降幅约25%，其中保温装饰板收入同比下滑24%（销量同比下滑13%）。防水板块相对较优，实现了较快正增长，防水卷材收入同比增长38%（销量同比增长66%）、防水涂料收入同比增长54%（销量同比增长63%），但价格维度仍有压力。Description of the event
Ascroneng released its three-quarter report: In the first three quarters of 2024, revenue was 1.72 billion yuan, down 28% year on year, net profit was about -0.019 billion yuan, down 123% year on year, and after deducting non-net profit, fell 151% year on year. The third quarter achieved revenue of 0.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24%, and attributable net profit of 0.001 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 99%, and a year-on-year decrease of 107% after deducting non-net profit.
Incident comments
Revenue is declining under pressure, and the proportion of waterproofing has increased. The company's revenue for the 3rd quarter fell 24% year on year. Under further pressure on the industry, the company's year-on-year decline was similar to that of the second quarter. By structure, architectural coatings, thermal insulation, and waterproofing materials accounted for 61%, 22%, and 16% of the main revenue, respectively. The corresponding revenue growth rates were -33%, -25%, and +40%, respectively. Waterproofing revenue is still growing rapidly and positively. Focusing on the architectural coatings sector, engineering paint revenue fell 33% year on year (sales fell 35% year on year); home decoration paint revenue fell 28% year on year (sales fell 14% year on year); revenue from supporting materials fell 36% year on year, still dominated by engineering coatings, accounting for about 80% of the revenue in architectural coatings. The decline in the insulation and energy saving sector was less than that of architectural coatings. Revenue fell by about 25% year on year. Among them, insulation decoration board revenue fell 24% year on year (sales fell 13% year on year). The waterproof sector is relatively superior and has achieved relatively rapid positive growth. Waterproof membrane revenue increased 38% year on year (sales increased 66% year on year), and waterproof coating revenue increased 54% year on year (sales volume increased 63% year on year), but the price dimension is still under pressure.
Product prices are under overall pressure, and the decline in revenue has put pressure on profitability, but depreciation has been hedged. The company's gross margin for the third quarter was about 23.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from month on month and 6.7 percentage points year on year. The price of engineering paint fell 4% month-on-month and increased 4% year-on-year in the third quarter; the price of home decoration paint fell 3% month-on-month and 20% year-on-year. However, the price of waterproof membrane fell 8% month-on-month and 21% year-on-year, and the price of waterproof coatings increased 4% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year, and waterproof factories were being transformed one after another, and production capacity was not fully utilized, resulting in a low waterproof gross margin. The company's rate for the 3rd quarter period was about 19.4%, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month and 1.2 percentage points year-on-year. The company continued to reduce cost control fees as revenue declined. Among them, sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses rates changed by -0.9, +0.4, +0.5, and -0.3 percentage points year-on-year, respectively. The company accrued credit impairment losses of about 23 million yuan in the third quarter (impairment losses of about 31 million yuan in the same period last year). In the end, the company's net interest rate for the 3rd quarter was about 0.1%, down 8.3 percentage points from month to month, and 4.6 percentage points from year on year.
Cash flow is still under some pressure. The company's net operating cash flow for the first three quarters was about -0.221 billion yuan, compared to about +0.066 billion yuan in the same period last year, with a revenue ratio of about 0.89 in the first three quarters, compared to about 0.095 billion yuan in the same period last year. Although the company paid more attention to repayment, the overall financial pressure on the industry was still high. The company has some control at the level of accounts receivable. At the end of the third quarter, accounts receivable and notes were about 1.824 billion yuan, compared to about 2.385 billion yuan in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of about 24%, which is close to the overall decline in revenue.
The company is currently still in a period of active adjustment, continuing channel optimization, and focusing on the gradual steady improvement of industry demand brought about by real estate policies and debt conversion policies. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be about 0.02, 0.08, and 0.13 billion yuan, and the corresponding valuation is 170, 40, and 24 times.
Risk warning
1. The real estate industry continues to be sluggish;
2. Prices of raw materials fluctuate greatly.
