The night before last, as soon as the report of muddy water shorting LUCKN COFFEE DRC was published, someone sent it to me. After reading the first and last pages, I feel that the author has done a lot of work, strict logic and rich materials. It seems that the management of the company has to spend a lot of energy to explain.

With the ability and resources of the head of this strange theft regiment, it is not yet possible to judge the "authenticity of evidence" of the Muddy Waters short report; let's leave this problem to be solved by the announcement of the listed company, and the truth becomes clearer and clearer as we argue. However, there is one thing I agree with: LUCKN COFFEE DRC is not a sustainable business model, at least not now. I can prove this with my own materials.

The head of this strange pirate regiment likes three kinds of people least:

1. Investors in game stocks who do not play games

two。 Investors in e-commerce stocks who do not shop online

3. Coffee stock investors who don't drink coffee.

In a word: people who are not serious. People who are not serious are bound to fail-who can't even try the product themselves? who is qualified to make money from the manufacturer of this product?

You can also choose not to earn this money. No one requires you to make money from game stocks / e-commerce stocks / coffee stocks. There may be 100,000 listed companies in the world, of which 10,000 have investment value, and you have full freedom of choice. Now that you have made a choice, you must pay the corresponding price and carry out corresponding due diligence; otherwise, you must be prepared to be beaten by the market.

Time is limited today, so let me focus on one topic: is LUCKN COFFEE DRC really "cheap"?

If your answer is yes, then you are likely to belong to one of the following three types of people:

1. People who don't drink coffee.

two。 People who only drink Starbucks Corp or the Ka family.

3. Seldom visit foreign friends in China.

I drink coffee. I usually drink two cups of coffee every day, and I don't drink instant coffee or canned coffee. Starbucks Corp, Jia Shijia, LUCKN COFFEE DRC, McCoffee, K Ji Coffee, Pacific Coffee, Greybox, Soloist. I'm a regular. There is no community cafe / boutique cafe near my home that I don't know about. I have a capsule coffee maker and countless hanging-ear coffee bags at home.

I still have a say in the price of coffee. Let me come to the conclusion that LUCKN COFFEE DRC is not cheap.

LUCKN COFFEE DRC's investors always take Starbucks Corp as a target, saying that Starbucks Corp's cup of special drink is often 35 yuan, while LUCKN COFFEE DRC's discount is only 14 yuan. I'm really tired of them saying this idea over and over again on various occasions.

Well, Starbucks Corp is really expensive, and coffee from the family and Pacific Ocean is also very expensive. But besides them, there are many chain coffee shops in China. There are a lot of places that sell freshly ground coffee? Why do you compare your products with those on the market that are generally considered to be expensive and cost-effective? Then I suggest that you might as well compare with Greybox, whose hand-brewed coffee costs an average of 65 yuan per serving, which shows a greater price advantage.

If I am a medium-and low-end liquor manufacturer, I cannot compare my wine price with that of Maotai, especially with Maotai vintage. If I am a casual snack manufacturer, I cannot compare the price of my biscuits with macarons, especially macarons of French origin by air.

What? You said you want to subvert high-end coffee, high-end brands, rebel against superior success? Have your big dream of spring and autumn, first ask if you agree with the existing low-end coffee on the market!

I can easily list freshly ground coffee that is cheaper than LUCKN COFFEE DRC, more cost-effective than LUCKN COFFEE DRC, and can be bought anywhere. I can list a lot in one breath. If you are in Shanghai, Shenzhen and other cities with developed convenience store culture, please search for "guest coffee":

You see that? There are family convenience stores everywhere on the streets of Shanghai, and most family convenience stores have "guest coffee" counters. There are medium and large cups, American milk coffee, hot ice, and sometimes fancy coffee. The price is clearly written on it. Tell me, is this price more expensive or cheaper than lucky coffee?

What? You say you are not in Shanghai, Shenzhen, in the northern cities where convenience store culture is underdeveloped, such as Beijing? So there is no family convenience store around you, only LUCKN COFFEE DRC recently spent a lot of money renting a big store? So when you are happy, you buy a lot of lucky coffee coupons on buy five get five free, and you think you have made hundreds of millions, right?

Why don't you search under a different name? It is true that there are few families in Beijing, but there are Rosen, there are 7-11. If you don't find it, you don't like coffee very much either:

See, the Joya coffee provided by Rosen in Beijing is cheaper than the guest coffee. The drawback is that not every Lawson has freshly ground coffee, and the density of convenience stores in Beijing is much lower than in Shanghai. However, no matter how low the density is, it will not be much lower than LUCKN COFFEE DRC. I haven't mentioned that the self-service coffee in the convenience bee is full scan code or face recognition, including whether to add ice or not. I forgot the price, only that it was cheaper than Ruixing.

Of course, you can also argue that the coffee sold in convenience stores is not enough, there is no place to sit, the variety is incomplete, and so on. Although I am not sure who will go to LUCKN COFFEE DRC to look for forced and fancy varieties, I reluctantly recommend two cost-effective and full options for such people. I'm sure you can find them in the surrounding community, and if you don't, I lose.

Yes, they are our old friends-McDonald's Corp's McCoffee and Kentucky Fried Chicken Coffee. In fact, LUCKN COFFEE DRC is imitating the business model of McCoffee in the United States. During this special period, I specially went to McDonald's Corp, the only one still operating nearby, and photographed the price of the coffee. This price looks a little more expensive than LUCKN COFFEE DRC (after the discount), but please note:

1. To enjoy LUCKN COFFEE DRC's discount, you must first recharge to buy coupons or wait for a big event, while the price of the above-mentioned McCoffee remains the same all the year round.

two。 McCoffee consumers have special seats. Yes, even at the peak of the meal, you can still enjoy a priority consumption area after buying McCoffee, which is very comfortable.

3. The "cream" of McCoffee uses small cups of light milk, not plant fat powder! When I first discovered this, I was very surprised.

4. During the breakfast period, McDonald's Corp also launched "freshly brewed coffee". How cheap is it? 9-11 yuan, and it seems that you can get a refill for on-site consumption.

The product positioning of K Ji coffee is similar to that of McCoffee, except that "cream" uses plant fat powder, and there seems to be no special consumption area. So, under optional circumstances, I usually prefer McCoffee.

So the question arises: in the long run, does LUCKN COFFEE DRC have a chance to beat Guoke Coffee, Qiaoya Coffee, McCoffee and K Kee Coffee?

With all due respect, there is no chance of winning.

First of all, LUCKN COFFEE DRC sold at such a low price in order to achieve economies of scale as soon as possible, and its competitors already have economies of scale. How many convenience stores are there in Shanghai? How many McDonald's Corp are there in the whole country? Not only do these competitors do not need to rent extra space, they do not even need to build new convenience stores.

Secondly, LUCKN COFFEE DRC's taste does not have any advantage at a similar price. I often drink coffee, McCoffee and LUCKN COFFEE DRC. If we have to rank them, McCoffee is obviously stronger, coffee is OK but unstable, and LUCKN COFFEE DRC is the worst but not undrinkable. You may think all coffee tastes the same, but it's not.

Finally, LUCKN COFFEE DRC's killer mace is delivery: the face price of 55 yuan (discounted equivalent to about 35 yuan) is free, which is indeed more affordable than competitors. Therefore, LUCKN COFFEE DRC's biggest customer now may be the office white-collar workers who don't bother to go downstairs. The problem is that this is clearly unsustainable-there is no logistics model, whether self-built or outsourced, that can bear the huge cost of 35 yuan free delivery in big cities for a long time. If you think so, suggest you set up your own logistics enterprise, which will certainly make more money than LUCKN COFFEE DRC.

By the way, I also think Starbucks Corp's coffee price ratio is too poor, so I haven't drunk Starbucks Corp for a long time. However, the biggest misunderstanding of investors who do not drink coffee is that there are only two kinds of cafes in China-Starbucks Corp and LUCKN COFFEE DRC. That's not true.

If you are afraid of everything in the world, you are afraid of the word "serious". Of course, it is the most unreliable.