销售毛利率15.20%，同比下降0.35 个百分点；销售净利率2.15%，同比下降0.35 个百分点。其中，公司2024Q3 实现营收7904.10 亿元，同比-9.80%，环比+0.54%；实现归母净利润85.44 亿元，同比-52.15%，环比-50.86%；ROE 为1.04%，同比减少1.20 个百分点，环比减少1.05 个百分点。销售毛利率14.05%，同比减少2.14 个百分点，环比减少1.45 个百分点；销售净利率1.25%，同比减少1.18个百分点，环比减少1.24 个百分点。Investment highlights:
Crude oil prices fell rapidly, putting pressure on the company's Q3 results
In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 2366.541 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.19%; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 44.247 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.46%; and a weighted average return on net assets was 5.45%, down 1.22 percentage points from the previous year.
The gross profit margin on sales was 15.20%, down 0.35 percentage points from the previous year; the net profit margin was 2.15%, down 0.35 percentage points from the previous year. Among them, the company achieved revenue of 790.41 billion yuan in 2024Q3, -9.80% year-on-year, +0.54% month-on-month; realized net profit of 8.544 billion yuan, -52.15% year-on-year, and -50.86% month-on-month; ROE was 1.04%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points year-on-year and 1.05 percentage points month-on-month. The gross profit margin on sales was 14.05%, down 2.14 percentage points from the previous year and 1.45 percentage points from the previous year; the net sales margin was 1.25%, down 1.18 percentage points from the previous year, and 1.24 percentage points from the previous month.
In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 2366.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 103.4 billion yuan; realized net profit to mother of 44.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7 billion yuan; and realized gross profit of 359.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.4 billion yuan. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved oil and gas equivalent production of 386.06 million barrels, up 2.6% year on year. Among them, crude oil production was 211.29 million barrels, up 0.3% year on year, crude oil realized price was 76.56 US dollars/barrel, +1.1% year on year; natural gas production was 1048.14 billion cubic feet, up 5.6% year on year, and natural gas achieved price of 7.48 US dollars/thousand cubic feet, up 5.4% year on year. The profit before interest and tax of the exploration and development sector for the first three quarters was 45.209 billion yuan. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company processed 190.69 million tons of crude oil and produced 116.6 million tons of refined oil products, of which gasoline production was 49.21 million tons, up 4.1% year on year, diesel production was 43.29 million tons, down 10.7% year on year, and kerosene production was 24.1 million tons, up 10.5% year on year. The refining sector's profit before interest and tax for the first three quarters was 6.156 billion yuan. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's total sales volume of refined oil products was 181.67 million tons, an increase of 0.6% over the previous year. The profit before interest and tax in the marketing and distribution sector for the first three quarters was 19.866 billion yuan. The total operating volume of the company's chemical products in the first three quarters of 2024 was 62.17 million tons, achieving full production and sales.
The chemical sector lost 4.787 billion yuan before interest and tax in the first three quarters.
With 2024Q3, the company achieved revenue of 790.4 billion yuan, -85.8 billion yuan year-on-year, +4.2 billion yuan month-on-month; net profit to mother of 8.5 billion yuan, -9.3 billion yuan year-on-year, -8.8 billion yuan month-on-month; gross profit of 111.1 billion yuan, -30.9 billion yuan year-on-year, and -10.8 billion yuan month-on-month. In the third quarter of 2024, oil prices fell rapidly, and the company's inventory revenue declined sharply year on year. At the same time, gross profit from petroleum and petrochemical products declined, and the company's gross profit declined in the third quarter. According to segment financial information, the company's exploration and development division achieved revenue of 66.8 billion yuan, -4% year-on-month, and -10% month-on-month, achieving operating income of 13.5 billion yuan, -2% year-on-month, and -11% month-on-month; the refining division achieved revenue of 374 billion yuan, -7% YoY and -0.38% month-on-month, achieving operating income of -0.5 billion yuan (2024Q2 was 0.2 billion yuan, 2023Q3 was 7.6 billion yuan); marketing The distribution division also achieved revenue of 418.7 billion yuan, -8% year-on-month, and achieved operating income of 2.6 billion yuan, -65% year-on-month, and -61% month-on-month; the chemical division achieved revenue of 128.3 billion yuan, +0.31%, and -4% month-on-month, achieving operating income of -1.7 billion yuan (2024Q2 was -1.6 billion yuan, 2023Q3 was 0.6 billion yuan).
In terms of period expenses, 2024Q3's sales expenses were 15.5 billion yuan, -0.1 billion yuan year on year, +0.043 billion yuan month on month; management expenses were 13.3 billion yuan, -1.3 billion yuan year on year, +0.8 billion yuan month on month; R&D expenses were 4.2 billion yuan, up 0.4 billion yuan year on year, +1.2 billion yuan month on month; financial expenses were 2.7 billion yuan, year over year +0.2 billion yuan, -0.9 billion yuan month-on-month. 2024Q3's other income was 3 billion yuan, +0.2 billion yuan year over month, +1.4 billion yuan month on month; net investment income 3.6 billion yuan, +4.7 billion yuan year on month, +1.5 billion yuan month on month; net income from fair value change was 0.5 billion yuan, +7.6 billion yuan year on year, -3.1 billion yuan month on month; asset impairment loss was 0.5 billion yuan, +0.2 billion yuan year on month billion yuan, -1.2 billion yuan month-on-month.
Projects under construction continued to advance, increasing the capital expenditure of the exploration and development sector by RMB 86.35 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, of which the capital expenditure of the exploration and development sector was RMB 50.765 billion, mainly for the construction of crude oil production capacity in Jiyang, Tahe, etc., the construction of natural gas production capacity in western Sichuan, and the construction of oil and gas storage and transportation facilities; the capital expenditure of the refining sector was RMB 12.573 billion, mainly for the construction of projects such as Zhenhai refining and chemical expansion, Guangzhou petrochemical technology transformation, and Maoming petrochemical technology transformation; marketing and distribution The sector's capital expenditure is RMB 5.565 billion, mainly for projects such as “oil and gas hydrogen electric service” integrated fuel station network development, existing terminal sales network transformation, and non-oil business; the chemical sector's capital expenditure is RMB 15.435 billion, mainly for ethylene and high-end materials project construction such as Zhenhai Phase II and Maoming; headquarters and other capital expenditure of RMB 2.012 billion, mainly for technology research and development and informatization projects.
Repurchase and increase the company's shares to highlight the long-term value of the company
In September 2024, the company began implementing A share and H share repurchases. As of September 30, 2024, the company has repurchased 7,490,800 A shares, accounting for 0.01% of the company's total issued share capital on September 30, 2024. The highest price purchased was RMB 6.40 per share, the lowest price was RMB 6.17 per share, and the total amount paid was RMB 47,315,369 (not including transaction fees); it had repurchased a total of 111,192,000 H shares, accounting for the proportion of the company's total issued share capital on September 30, 2024 0.09%, the highest purchase price was HK$4.89/share, the lowest price was HK$4.31/share, and the total amount paid was HK$506,261,070.60 (not including transaction fees).
Based on confidence in Sinopec's future development prospects, Sinopec Group Corporation, the controlling shareholder of the company, plans to increase its holdings of Sinopec A shares and H shares through itself and its wholly-owned subsidiary within 12 months from November 11, 2023. According to the notice from Sinopec Group Corporation, as of September 30, 2024, Sinopec Group Corporation and its wholly-owned subsidiaries have increased their total holdings of the company's shares by 297,263,456.
Profit forecasts and investment ratings
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 3147.3, 3220.7, and 3297.9 billion yuan, respectively; net profit to mother will be 54.4, 65.1, and 70.1 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to 14, 12, and 11 times PE, respectively. The company operates steadily, has significant comprehensive competitive advantages in the fields of exploration, refining, chemicals, etc., and maintains a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Fluctuations in international crude oil and natural gas prices, uncertainty in oil and gas reserves, macroeconomic and policy, and international political uncertainties affect oil prices, industry regulation and tax policy risks, and risks that the progress of new production capacity construction falls short of expectations.
