“Trump 2.0” may further expand the scope of the list of entities and expand the scope of key technology products exported to China, further limiting the flow of US capital into the Chinese semiconductor industry. It is imperative that China's semiconductors are autonomous and controllable.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guotai Junan Securities published a research report saying that there is a large number of debt transfers in the semiconductor industry chain, focusing on semiconductor design, manufacturing, sealing and testing processes that have benefited from the recovery of the industry cycle, as well as debt transfers where the production rate of semiconductor materials and equipment in China is low. In the short term, benefiting from the recovery in consumer electronics demand, debt conversion performance in semiconductor design, manufacturing, and testing is expected to bottom out; in the medium to long term, the localization rate of photoresists, electronic specialty gases, advanced packaging materials, semiconductor quantity/testing equipment, and semiconductor equipment components is expected to break through, and related debt conversions are worth paying attention to, including Fikai, Walter, and GuoLi.
In recent years, the country has strongly supported the technology industry, and the localization of China's semiconductor industry chain has ushered in opportunities. Since 2018, the localization rate of core front-end equipment such as PVD, CVD, etching equipment, cleaning equipment, and CMP has further broken through, growing from a small single digit to more than 10%. The localization of materials has also accelerated significantly, and core materials such as polishing pads, polishing liquid, silicon wafers, and sputtering targets have also been steadily improved. On May 24, 2024, the third phase of the National Capital Fund was established, with a registered capital of 344 billion yuan, which is larger than the sum of the previous two phases. In September 2024, the Securities Regulatory Commission issued “On Deepening Listed Companiesmergers and acquisitions“Opinions on Restructuring the Market Reform” proposes to support the transformation and upgrading of listed companies to new quality productivity, and that the country strongly supports the technology industry and helps the semiconductor industry achieve autonomy and control.
The semiconductor industry is recovering, and the growth momentum is expected to continue. After experiencing a cycle of undervaluation from 2022 to 2023, global semiconductor sales picked up strongly in 2024. According to data from the American Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), global semiconductor sales in 2024Q3 were 166 billion US dollars, up 23.2% year over year, up 10.7% month on month, and quarterly sales recorded the biggest increase since 2016. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in the first 10 months of 2024, China's integrated circuit exports amounted to 931.17 billion yuan, an increase of 21.4% over the previous year. Looking ahead, the increase in the penetration rate of AI and automotive intelligence is expected to further drive the recovery in semiconductor demand.
Risk warning: Policy strength falls short of expectations; underlying shares fluctuate greatly; risk of financial management or secondary debt redemption.
