The global tourism industry is recovering strongly at a pace exceeding expectations, especially in the international tourism and cruise sectors. According to the U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office, international visitors spent 21 billion US dollars in the U.S. in September, a year-on-year increase of 7%, while American spending on outbound travel exceeded 20.4 billion US dollars, resulting in a trade surplus of 0.608 billion US dollars.

In the first nine months of 2024, international tourists spent nearly 189.3 billion US dollars in the U.S., a 14% year-on-year increase. The cruise industry has also shown strong growth, with bookings and stock prices exceeding expectations. Analysts are generally optimistic about the profit growth and debt reduction of cruise companies, indicating the arrival of a 'golden age' for the tourism industry. Cruise tourism, with its high cost performance and unique vacation experiences, is gradually becoming a favorite in the travel market.

The global tourism industry is showing strong signs of recovery.

According to the latest data from the U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO), international visitors' spending on travel and related activities in the U.S. reached 21 billion US dollars in September, up more than 7% year-on-year, while Americans' spending on outbound travel exceeded 20.4 billion US dollars, leading to a trade surplus of 0.608 billion US dollars for travel-related goods and services. These data, along with the forecast that the number of international overnight visitors in 2024 will reach a record 1.5 million, together paint a picture of a strong recovery in the global tourism industry.

In the first nine months of 2024, international tourists spent nearly 189.3 billion US dollars in the U.S., a 14% year-on-year increase contributing an average of 0.693 billion US dollars to the U.S. economy daily. In September, spending by international tourists on travel-related goods and services increased by 11% year-on-year, reaching 11.9 billion US dollars. These expenses include food, lodging, entertainment, gifts, hospitality, local transportation, among others. Tourism revenue accounts for 57% of total U.S. travel and tourism exports, while the total amount airlines receive from international visitors is 2.9 billion US dollars, representing 14% of total exports. Additionally, a total of 6.2 billion US dollars was spent on educational, health-related tourism expenses, as well as expenses for border, seasonal, and other short-term workers.

At the 2024 London World Travel Market (WTM), the WTM Global Travel Report predicts a historic milestone for the international tourism industry. Jointly released with the Tourism Economics, the report delves into trends in 185 countries, emphasizing the strong recovery and expansion of the global tourism industry. It is estimated that by 2030, the number of international tourists will significantly increase by 30% to reach 2 billion, mainly driven by growth in emerging source markets and leisure travel spending. By 2024, leisure travel expenditure is expected to exceed 5.5 trillion US dollars, a 24% increase from 2019. Consumers in developed economies are spending more on travel than ever before, with the tourism industry currently accounting for 8.8% of consumer spending, higher than the average of 8.2% in the decade before the pandemic.

While the recovery pace in regions like Asia-Pacific is slower, global tourism spending is on the rise. Juliette Losardo, Director of Participants at the London World Travel Market (WTM), stated: 'Consumers clearly see travel as an important part of life, and the record numbers we are seeing reflect this.' WTM's mission is to help industry leaders navigate these changes and provide insights for the coming year. A significant trend in 2024 is the increase in overnight accommodations, expected to grow by 7% compared to 2023 and 16% compared to 2019. Visitors are also staying longer: average international travel stay has increased by 12% compared to 2019. This shift reflects growing interest in 'slow travel' and the rise of 'bleisure' travel, where business travel extends to personal enjoyment.

Tourism recovery exceeds expectations: Online booking giants and the cruise industry demonstrate robust growth.

A few months ago, the tourism industry generally sounded the alarm, warning that the consumer enthusiasm for the tourism industry is gradually cooling down. However, recently, the three major online booking giants - $Airbnb (ABNB.US)$、$Booking Holdings (BKNG.US)$And.$Expedia (EXPE.US)$ - have presented a completely different report. Their released outlook exceeds market expectations, indicating that the slowdown in the tourism industry is not as severe as previously predicted, especially the strong performance of international travel demand.

Airbnb announced in its recent financial report that its key indicators - booking nights and experiences - are expected to accelerate growth this quarter, with the growth rate expected to exceed the previous quarter's 8.5%, higher than Wall Street's expected 7.7%. Expedia also stated in its financial report that it is raising its annual total booking growth expectations from 4% to 5%.

据了解，爱彼迎第三季度的预订夜数和调整后收益均超出预期，EMEA地区受巴黎夏季奥运会的推动，预订夜数略有增长。拉丁美洲和亚太地区的预订量实现了两位数增长，活跃房源数量创下历史新高。尽管中国境外业务的复苏进展缓慢，但爱彼迎表示对此感到鼓舞。北美地区在夏季出现了需求放缓的迹象，但爱彼迎表示，在经历了开局的放缓之后，第三季度预订量有所回升。国内旅行仍占该地区预订量的绝大部分，非城市目的地和大型团体旅行的增长速度比以往任何时候都要快。

然而，并非所有指标都超出了预期：爱彼迎第三季度的净收入为1.37 billion美元，低于分析师预期的1.39 billion美元。公司将未达预期归因于确认了某些非现金税费。此外，爱彼迎还将其2024年Ebitda利润率预期从至少35%下调至约35.5%，低于一些分析师的预期。

与此同时，Expedia第三季度的总预订额为27.5 billion美元，超过了华尔街预期的26.7 billion美元。客户在Expedia的旅游网站上共预订了97.4 million晚住宿，也高于分析师的预期。Expedia约三分之二的收入来自美国，这使其成为衡量美国可自由支配支出的有力指标，并为投资者提供了更清晰的美国旅游需求图景。相比之下，其竞争对手Airbnb和Booking的大部分销售额都来自国际市场。截至9月的三个月通常是该公司最赚钱的季度，因为这是美国人享受暑假并开始计划冬季度假的时候。

就在几个月前，Expedia首席执行官Ariane Gorin曾警告称，旅游需求将会疲软。在周四发布财报之前，该公司已两次下调了全年业绩预期。在周四的财报电话会议上，Gorin表示，7月份需求疲软，但随着季度的进展而回升，主要是由于海外需求强于美国。她表示：“我们已重返增长更快的国际市场，进行精准投资，并看到了令人欣喜的成果。”

就在几周前，Booking Holdings——旗下拥有Kayak和Priceline等品牌的公司——发布了超出预期的乐观业绩指引，推动其股价大幅上涨。而在Expedia发布财报后，其股价在周五开盘后一度上涨8.9%，达到2022年以来的最高点。相比之下，爱彼迎的股价则一度下跌9.8%，部分原因是公司警告称，由于营销和产品开发支出的增加，利润率将受到挤压。

这些公司的预测为决策者和投资者提供了一些乐观的理由，挑战了上个季度在线旅游公司、航空公司和度假村提出的“旅游业全面放缓即将到来”的观点。

除此之外，邮轮行业巨头$Royal Caribbean (RCL.US)$、$Carnival (CCL.US)$And.$Norwegian Cruise (NCLH.US)$Since 2023, it has continuously set performance records, demonstrating the strong recovery and growth of the cruise tourism.

Royal Caribbean Group is dedicated to providing high-end cruise experiences, with brands including Celebrity Cruises, family-focused Royal Caribbean International, and the ultra-luxury adventure brand Silver Sea Cruises. The company owns the world's largest fleet of seven ships, including the "Ocean Idol" which can accommodate nearly 6,000 passengers. These high-end services attract high-spending customers, driving quarterly revenue to reach $4.89 billion, a 17.4% year-on-year increase. Third-quarter earnings per share exceeded expectations, reaching $5.20. The net cruise cost per available passenger cruise day (APCD) increased by 1.3% year-on-year, with a high occupancy rate of 111%, indicating strong market demand. Gross margin increased by 13.4%, benefiting from rising product prices, increased onboard revenue, and robust growth on Alaska and Europe routes.

Carnival Cruise Line not only offers more affordable cruise options but also creates a party atmosphere to meet the needs of different customer groups. The company owns high-end brands such as Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, Costa Cruises, and AIDA Cruises. In the third quarter of 2024, Carnival Cruise Line broke records with revenue reaching $7.9 billion, a 19% year-on-year gross margin growth, operating income hitting $2.2 billion, a new high. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 25% year-on-year to $2.8 billion, with customer deposits setting a new record of $6.8 billion. CEO Josh Weinstein stated that the company's high profit margins and onboard revenue growth led to a 26% year-on-year increase in unit revenue, the highest level in 15 years. He is optimistic about bookings in 2025 and 2026, believing the company will continue to achieve record prices driven by strong demand.

Norwegian Cruise Holdings again raised its annual profit outlook in the third quarter, benefiting from record revenue and strong presale ticket performance. Against the backdrop of consumer spending growth and slowing inflation, there is strong demand for cruise vacation experiences, driving the company's performance. Earnings per share in the third quarter were $0.99, exceeding expectations, with revenue increasing by 11% year-on-year to $2.81 billion. The company expects an adjusted earnings per share of $1.65 for the 2024 fiscal year, higher than previous forecasts. Norwegian Cruise Line emphasizes that by improving profit margins and reducing operating costs, the company has achieved higher-than-expected revenue and income. Third-quarter presale ticket balance reached around $3.3 billion, showing an increase of about 6% year-on-year. President and CEO Harry Sommer stated that the company's performance in the third quarter was outstanding, with all key indicators surpassing expectations, highlighting the strength of the company's operations and the excellent execution of the team.

Cruise tourism may lead the new trend of vacationing.

In the recent financial report analysis of the tourism industry, we witnessed strong performances from online booking giants and cruise companies, challenging the predictions of a slowdown in the tourism industry and highlighting the unique advantages of the cruise industry compared to traditional ways of travel. With consumers' increasing demand for travel experiences, the cruise industry's unique charm and high cost-effectiveness are gradually becoming the new favorite in the tourism market. This article will explore the advantages of cruise tourism compared to traditional vacation methods such as land resorts and theme parks.

Cruise tourism provides tourists with a whole new way of travel through its all-inclusive vacation experience. In comparison to land resorts and theme parks where accommodation, dining, and activities need to be booked separately, cruise tourism prices typically include accommodation, dining, entertainment, and many activities, giving it a clear advantage in budget planning and value. Accommodation options on a cruise ship are diverse, ranging from economical interior cabins to luxurious suites, catering to the needs of different tourists, while land resorts and theme parks often offer more limited accommodation choices.

Another significant advantage of cruise tourism is its destination diversity. Cruises can easily access multiple destinations, eliminating the hassle of luggage handling and hotel changes for tourists, whereas land travel often involves transfers between different cities, adding complexity and costs to the journey. In addition, the 'sea vacation' experience provided by cruises, such as infinity pools, deck parties, and sea sunsets, bring unique leisure enjoyment to tourists.

Cruise tourism is also renowned for its high quality of service. Cruise companies usually provide meticulous services, including 24-hour room service, professional entertainment performances, and a variety of children's activities, ensuring that guests of all ages can enjoy a pleasant travel experience. In contrast, land resorts and theme parks may not be able to offer the same level of personalized service.

Safety and convenience are also highlights of cruise tourism. Cruise companies typically implement strict safety measures, including medical care facilities and emergency response teams, ensuring the safety of tourists. At the same time, the one-stop service on cruises reduces uncertainty and stress during travel, allowing guests to enjoy their vacation more easily.

Finally, cruise tourism has a relatively small impact on the environment. As cruises increasingly focus on environmental protection in their design and operation, they offer a more sustainable way of traveling. In contrast, land travel may involve more traffic congestion and carbon emissions.

Overall, cruise tourism provides tourists with a new experience that surpasses traditional travel methods with its high cost-effectiveness, destination diversity, high service quality, safety and convenience, and environmental friendliness. With continuous innovation and development in the cruise industry, it is expected to continue leading the new trends in the tourism market, attracting more consumers seeking unique and high-quality travel experiences.

Analysts are bullish on the cruise stocks and see historic growth opportunities.

The cruise industry is entering an unprecedented 'golden age,' with its share and influence in the global vacation market continuing to expand. Truist Securities' lodging and leisure stocks research manager Patrick Scholes pointed out that cruise demand is strong, with clear price advantages, indicating industry prosperity. Analysts generally believe that the cruise industry not only shows strong demand growth momentum but also surpasses expectations in financial performance, a trend reflected in the booking data of the world's largest cruise company.

Matthew Boss, head of leisure and retail business at JPMorgan, emphasized in his cruise industry report that cruise demand shows strong growth momentum in all leading indicators, with no signs of slowing down in booking curves, prices, and onboard spending. As of September, nearly half of the 2025 cruise capacity has been booked, about 4 months ahead of schedule. By convention, cruise companies should reach a 50% booking rate for 2025 by the end of the year, but current bookings have extended to 2026, and some even to 2027. Boss predicts that cruise industry revenue will grow at a high single-digit rate over the next five years, accounting for approximately 3.8% of the global vacation market by 2028. The appeal of cruise tourism is increasing among all age groups, especially young people, which will further expand the potential size of the cruise market.

Citigroup analyst James Hardiman has upgraded the entire cruise industry's rating, as well as raised the target prices for Carnival Cruise, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise. Hardiman remains optimistic about Carnival Cruise's financial performance in the third quarter, with a 14% revenue growth and a net income surge of over 60%, reaching $1.7 billion. Management also raised the adjusted EBITDA expectation for 2024 to $6 billion, $0.2 billion higher than the June forecast. Importantly, the company's debt has recently been upgraded by rating agencies, a point quickly noted by management.

Hardiman is optimistic about the future profit growth for Carnival Cruise's new private island Celebration Key in the Bahamas. He also points out that Carnival focuses on moderate but high-profit growth, which should allow it to pay off debts in the coming years. Hardiman also gave positive reviews for Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise. Among the three cruise companies, Royal Caribbean has the least debt and is expected to achieve strong growth, with a 6% increase in capacity and potentially faster earnings growth in the next year. Citigroup also believes that Royal Caribbean will introduce long-term financial plans and prospects over the next few quarters, which could act as a catalyst for the company's stock price increase.

Meanwhile, with a slight shift in Norwegian Cruise's business strategy, Citigroup Bank has reserved the highest percentage of target price increases for the company. Hardiman points out that previously, Norwegian Cruise pursued a quality experience strategy, but also invested heavily in it. Now, this analyst believes management is focusing more on costs, which could lead to excess profit growth. According to Reuters, he wrote, "Norwegian Cruise's strategy of changing from pursuing quality at all costs to a more balanced revenue/cost relationship gives us confidence, strong pricing power and more attention to costs 'will inevitably pay off.'"

Editor/ping