自主品牌盈利能力维稳，深蓝4 季度销量将环比提升。3 季度扣非自主净利润8.18亿元，环比下降14.2%，去年同期为-1.74 亿元。3 季度为汽车销售传统淡季，自主板块盈利能力维持稳健。3 季度自主品牌乘用车销量33.89 万辆，同比下降17.4%，环比下降11.9%；3 季度自主品牌新能源销量14.86 万辆，同比增长13.7%，环比下降12.7%。9 月20 日深蓝L07 正式上市，搭载华为乾崑智驾ADSSE；10 月20 日深蓝S05 正式上市，预售订单突破1.6 万辆；10 月21 日长安启源E07 正式上市，首发搭载长安高阶智驾，预售订单突破1 万辆；10 月深蓝全系订单突破3 万辆，随着多款重点自主新能源新车陆续上市，预计4 季度自主新能源销量有望同环比向上，促进自主板块盈利能力提升。The performance was in line with expectations. The company's revenue for the first three quarters was 110.96 billion yuan, up 2.5% year on year; net profit to mother was 3.58 billion yuan, down 63.8% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 1.681 billion yuan, down 48.9% year on year. Revenue for the third quarter was 34.237 billion yuan, down 19.8% year on year and 13.8% month on month; net profit to mother was 0.748 billion yuan, down 66.4% year on year and 55.3% month on month; net profit without return to mother was 0.512 billion yuan, down 75.0% year on year and 51.6% month on month. The company's profit pressure in the third quarter is expected to be mainly affected by a decline in investment income and a month-on-month increase in R&D expenses. R&D expenses for the third quarter were 1.544 billion yuan, an increase of 12.8% over the previous quarter.
The gross margin increased month-on-month in the third quarter, and the expense ratio remained flat year-on-year. The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 14.4%, down 3.5 percentage points from the previous year; the company changed its accounting policy to include guarantee quality assurance expenses. After adjustment, the gross margin for the first three quarters fell 2.2 percentage points year on year; the gross profit margin for the third quarter was 15.7%, down 1.3 percentage points year on year under the same caliber after adjustment, up 2.5 percentage points from month to month. The cost rate for the first three quarters was 14.3%, and after adjustment, it was basically the same year on year. Among them, sales expense ratio/management expense ratio/R&D cost rate/financial cost ratio were +0.6/-0.2/-0.2 percentage points year on year, respectively. Net cash flow from operating activities in the first three quarters was 4.393 billion yuan, down 74.9% year on year, mainly due to increased payment to suppliers.
Investment revenue in the 3rd quarter is under pressure, and we expect new Avita cars to drive a recovery in sales in the 4th quarter. Investment income for the third quarter was -0.268 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.672 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.441 billion yuan; investment income for joint ventures -0.306 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.684 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.41 billion yuan. The sales performance of joint venture brands and Avita Technology was weak in the 3rd quarter, which put a lot of pressure on the investment income of joint ventures in the 3rd quarter. Changfu/Changma sold 0.0608/0.0147 million units in the third quarter, respectively, -11.0%/-36.8% year on year, and +8.5%/-16.4% month on month; in the third quarter, Avita Technology sold 11874 vehicles, up 73.6% year on year, down 18.1% month on month. On September 27, Avita's third smart city luxury SUV, the Avita 07, was officially launched, providing extended range and pure electric dual-power options, with a fixed order of 25,386 units in 17 days, with a maximum lock order of 3508 units in a single day; in the fourth quarter, Avita will also launch the Avita 11/12 extended range version. As Avita 07 and the new Avita 11/12 begin delivery, it is expected that Avita sales will pick up month-on-month in the fourth quarter, driving a marginal improvement in its profitability.
The profitability of its own brands remains stable, and Deep Blue's sales volume will increase sequentially in the fourth quarter. Involuntary net profit for the third quarter was 0.818 billion yuan, down 14.2% month-on-month, compared to -0.174 billion yuan in the same period last year. The third quarter was a traditional low season for automobile sales, and the profitability of the autonomous sector remained steady. In the third quarter, own-brand passenger car sales were 0.3389 million units, down 17.4% year on year, down 11.9% month on month; sales of own-brand new energy vehicles in the 3rd quarter were 0.1486 million units, up 13.7% year on year, down 12.7% month on month. Deep Blue L07 was officially launched on September 20, equipped with the Huawei Qiankun Smart Driving ADSSE; on October 20, the Deep Blue S05 was officially launched, with pre-sale orders exceeding 0.016 million units; on October 21, Changan Qiyuan E07 was officially launched, first equipped with Changan Premium Smart Drive, with pre-sale orders exceeding 0.01 million vehicles; in October, all Deep Blue series orders exceeded 0.03 million vehicles. It is expected that with many new autonomous new energy vehicles being launched one after another, sales volume of autonomous new energy vehicles is expected to increase year-on-year in the 4th quarter. Promote the increase in the profitability of the autonomous sector.
The gross profit margin, expense ratio, investment income, etc. are adjusted, and the net profit to the mother for 2024-2026 is 5.948, 8.269, and 10.126 billion yuan (originally 7.869, 10.302, 11.673 billion yuan), which is comparable to the company's 24-year average PE valuation 32 times, and the target price is 19.2 yuan, maintaining the purchase rating.
Risk warning
Changan Ford's sales fell short of expectations, Changan Mazda's sales fell short of expectations, Changan's own brand sales fell short of expectations, and the industry's price war affected profits.
