Description of the event

The company released its report for the third quarter of 2024. In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 58.59 billion yuan, or -37.7% YoY; net profit to mother was -6.5 billion yuan, or -155.6% YoY. Among them, Q3 achieved revenue of 20.06 billion yuan, or -31.9% YoY, and -3.8% month-on-month; realized net profit to mother -1.26 billion yuan, or -150.1% YoY, +56.4%.

Incident reviews

Q3 Gross margin improved month-on-month, and shipments increased month-on-month. In Q3 2024, the company achieved a gross sales margin of 8.6%, +2.0pct. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved silicon wafer shipments of 82.8 GW (35.03 GW of external sales); 4.16 GW of battery sales; and 51.23 GW of components, +17.7% compared to the same period last year.

Q3 In a single quarter, the company achieved 38.4 GW of silicon wafers, +116.7% month-on-month; 1.5 GW of external battery sales; 19.9 GW of module shipments, +7.8% month-on-month.

BC's technology-leading layout is steadily advancing the construction of HPBC's second-generation production capacity. With deep technology accumulation and advanced intelligent manufacturing advantages, the company continued to break through high-efficiency HPBC 2.0 technology, and battery mass production efficiency reached 26.6%. The company launched centralized Hi-MO 9 modules and distributed Hi-MO X10 module products. The maximum mass production power reached 670W, the component mass production efficiency reached up to 24.8%, and the technical performance of power generation performance and reliability were far ahead of the industry. The company is steadily promoting HPBC second-generation production capacity. In the first three quarters of 2024, BC module sales volume was 13.77 GW; in 2025, the company will strive to ship 30 GW BC second-generation products.

Investment advice

There was a mismatch between supply and demand in the industry, and prices of various PV products fell significantly, dragging down the company's phased performance losses. We lowered the company's profit forecast. The company's 2024-2026 EPS is -0.99/0.76/1.17, corresponding to the company's closing price on November 8, and PE in 2024-2026 is -19.4/25.2/16.4, respectively. Considering that the company is a leading enterprise and insists on differentiated competition, BC's new technology product industry is leading, and continues to deepen the global production capacity layout to maintain a “buy-B” rating.

Risk warning

Risk of domestic and foreign policy changes; increased risk of industry competition; risk of price fluctuations of products and raw materials; new PV installations falling short of expectations; risk of technological change, etc.