Mini Program: Daily Real Estate Industry News Summary.
1. At the end of the third quarter, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 52.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1%.
According to the data from the People's Bank of China, at the end of the third quarter of 2024, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 52.9 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1% year-on-year. Among them, the balance of RMB real estate development loans was 13.79 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.7% year-on-year, with a growth rate 1.2 percentage points higher than the end of the previous year, increasing by 638.5 billion yuan in the first three quarters. The balance of personal housing loans was 37.56 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year.
2. Lan Foan: Relevant tax policies supporting the healthy development of the real estate market have been approved according to procedures.
Finance Minister Lan Foan introduced at a press conference that currently, the relevant tax policies supporting the healthy development of the real estate market have been approved according to procedures and will be launched soon. The implicit debt replacement work will be initiated soon. The work of issuing special national bonds to supplement the core Tier 1 capital of large state-owned commercial banks is accelerating. Special bonds support the recycling of idle stock land, adding land reserves, and acquiring existing commercial housing for affordable housing. The Ministry of Finance is coordinating with relevant departments to develop policy details and accelerate implementation.
3. Several cities have raised mortgage rates to 3%, with Guangzhou setting the tone for the rate rebound.
After the LPR (Loan Prime Rate) dropped by 25 basis points in October, the mortgage rates in some cities briefly entered the '2' range. In less than half a month, several cities have recently joined the ranks of mortgage rate rebounds, including Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Nanjing, and Suzhou. According to multiple banks in these cities, the current new mortgage rates are already set at 3%. 'Guangzhou is the first city to raise the lower limit of mortgage rates under the current stabilization trend of the property market, which carries a certain significance as an indicator.' Yan Yuejin, deputy director of the Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, stated that the rise in new mortgage rates is due to the rate inversion between provident fund loans and mortgage rates and should be understood as the mortgage rate basically 'bottoming out,' not as policy tightening. As this involves the reverse operation of mortgage rates, policy interpretation and expectation guidance need to be further strengthened.
4. The second-hand housing market in Beijing is warming up, with the number of listings dropping to 150,871 sets, hitting a new low in recent years.
Recently, reporters conducted on-site research on the second-hand housing market in Beijing and found that since November, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing has continued the recovery trend from October, remaining at a relatively high level. In terms of the listing volume, reporters found out that the current listing volume in Beijing has dropped to 150,871 units, hitting a recent low in the past few years. "Generally speaking, a listing volume of 140,000 to 150,000 units is considered relatively healthy for second-hand houses in Beijing. The listing volume in Beijing was close to 180,000 units during the period when the second-hand houses were unsold. It has gradually returned to normal now, and the market is developing in a positive direction." Several senior agents told reporters. (China Securities Pisces)
5. Shenzhen plans to increase the maximum amount of provident fund loans and increase interest subsidy.
The Shenzhen Housing Provident Fund Center has issued two draft documents for soliciting opinions, namely, the Supplementary Provisions on the Management Regulations of Shenzhen Housing Provident Fund Loans and the Notice on Matters related to Interest Subsidies for Housing Provident Fund in our city, intending to raise the maximum amount of housing provident fund loans in our city and increase the interest subsidy for depositing employees. For individual employees applying for housing provident fund loans, the maximum amount will be increased from the current 0.5 million yuan to 0.6 million yuan; for families applying jointly for housing provident fund loans, the maximum amount will be increased from the current 0.9 million yuan to 1.1 million yuan. (Shenzhen Housing Provident Fund)
6. Hong Kong's second-hand property price index rebounded by 1.24%, the largest weekly increase since March this year.
On November 8th, China City released that the latest Central City Leading Index (CCL) reflecting the Hong Kong second-hand property price index reached 138.57 points last week, an increase of 1.24% from the previous week. Due to owners lowering prices to cash out before the interest rate cut and the government introducing supportive measures for the real estate market, the market sentiment has improved. Owners have narrowed the bargaining range, stimulating a single-week rebound in CCL, the largest since March this year (Week 32).
7. In October, Hangzhou's second-hand housing transactions reached 8,769 units, with a year-on-year increase of over 60%, hitting a new high for the year.
According to the statistics from China Index Research Institute, a total of 8,769 second-hand housing units were sold in Hangzhou City (excluding Fortune Sun and Lin'an) in October, with year-on-year increases exceeding 60%, reaching a new high for the year.
8. China Real Estate News: The property market has shown initial signs of stabilization, but the phenomenon of 'backlog' still needs to be eliminated.
An article on the front page of China's real estate reports that after a month of coordinated expansion of stock and incremental policies, the real estate market has seen a positive change in expectations and confidence. In October, both the year-on-year and month-on-month transaction volume of commercial housing achieved 'double growth'. Currently, policies such as mortgage rates and housing purchase restrictions have been significantly adjusted and played a crucial role in real estate market transactions in October. It is now important to implement and activate the already established policy tools, such as timely implementation of fiscal policies repurchasing land that developers are unable or unwilling to develop, and the financial policies in supporting local governments to control the inventory of commercial housing should focus on 'timeliness, duration, and effectiveness'. It can be said that due to the development of the old model in the past few years with high turnover, high debt, and high leverage, a large number of real estate problems have accumulated, forming a 'logjam'. Now is the critical moment to solve this 'logjam', after the major policy directions have been clearly defined, only when policies are on the right track can the greatest and best victory be achieved.
Good news for the real estate industry as favorable policies are set to be introduced, offering potential relief on value-added tax for luxury home transactions in Shenzhen after 2 years.
The press conference held on November 8 by the office of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress revealed that relevant tax policies supporting the healthy development of the real estate market have been approved and are set to be launched soon. According to the Shenzhen Real Estate Association, if the policy is implemented, it could benefit luxury homes sold after 2 years, potentially reducing the burden of value-added tax on luxury home transactions in Shenzhen. A relevant person in charge of the Shenzhen Real Estate Association stated that the Ministry of Finance is accelerating research on tax policies matching the classification of ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties, focusing mainly on value-added tax and land appreciation tax. The potential introduction of this series of policies indicates that the burden of value-added tax in transactions of high-end residential properties (i.e., non-ordinary residential properties) in first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen may be lightened, with the policy favorably impacting luxury homes sold after 2 years in Shenzhen if implemented.
S&P raises its forecast for 2025 Hong Kong residential sales volume, expecting housing prices to stabilize.
Standard & Poor's pointed out in the report that after a nearly 30% decline from the peak in 2021, Hong Kong's housing prices are expected to stabilize next year. The upward adjustment in the forecast of residential sales is attributed to the decrease in mortgage interest rates and the market-boosting measures taken by the Hong Kong government. It is estimated that the sales volume of first-hand properties in 2025 will reach 20,000 units. The potential new supply in the next three to four years may exceed 80% of the Hong Kong government's 10-year private residential supply target. Developers are expected to be willing to sacrifice more profit margins to reduce inventory.
