Zhongtong Finance APP learned that China Post Securities released a research report stating that the price of gold began to fall after Trump's basic confirmation as the elected President of the USA, mainly influenced by several short-term factors. Market concerns over US tax cuts and high tariffs policies have led to investment inflows into the United States, while the anticipation of import restrictions in the USA has resulted in a stronger USD and weakness in gold and silver. Last week, the price of alumina rose to 5470 yuan per ton, and due to a temporary imbalance between supply and demand, the tight spot market remains difficult to ease. It is anticipated that throughout November, with the demand for replenishing stocks by Northwestern aluminum plants, prices still have room to rise, but as Guinea's aluminum ore exports relax marginally at the end of November, and with gradually shipping from new domestic production projects, the price of alumina is expected to peak in early December.

The main opinions of Zhongyou Securities are as follows:

Precious Metals: Short-term and Long-term

The price of gold began to fall after Trump's basic confirmation as the elected President of the USA, mainly influenced by four short-term factors: 1. Trump's trades finalized around a month ago, prompting long positions to take profit. 2. A strong USD index, market concerns over US tax cuts and high tariffs policies have led to investment inflows into the USA, while the anticipation of import restrictions in the USA has resulted in a stronger USD and weakness in gold and silver. 3. Expectations of the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict have diminished, weakening gold's safe-haven appeal. 4. Expectations of strengthening inflation and a slowdown in interest rate cuts (2-year t-note rates continue to rise). Although there was a rebound in gold and silver after the expected Fed rate cut, in the long run, with the increase in the US deficit rate, geopolitical disturbances compounded by US supply chain nearshoring leading to unchanged central bank gold purchases, the pace of interest rate cuts may accelerate with weakening US employment conditions, and the gold market is expected to remain supported in Q4 of 2024.

Aluminum: Alumina continues to reach new highs, suppressing aluminum electrolytic profits

Last week, the price of alumina rose to 5470 yuan per ton, and due to a temporary imbalance between supply and demand, the tight spot market remains difficult to ease. It is anticipated that throughout November, with the demand for replenishing stocks by Northwestern aluminum plants, prices still have room to rise, but as Guinea's aluminum ore exports relax marginally at the end of November, and with gradually shipping from new domestic production projects, the price of alumina is expected to peak in early December. LME aluminum is one of the few varieties of bulk commodities that have risen; although affected by Trump's strong USD policy on the day it had some retracement, the rapid rise in the price of alumina is supported by cost, maintaining the strength of aluminum prices. Overall, aluminum is the most pro-cyclical non-ferrous variety, expected to benefit during the debt-to-finance stage, while after the peak of alumina prices falls, the rebound of aluminum electrolytic profits is bullish.

Copper: Under macro pressure, maintaining volatility.

Last week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which overall met expectations. Donald Trump became the new President of the United States, and his plan to impose high tariffs on China and his tendency to reduce the green transformation in the United States are expected to impact the future expectations of copper prices. On the supply side, the expected full production of the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile is expected to increase domestic copper concentrate production and import volumes. As the import window opens, domestic production and imports of scrap copper are expected to increase. With the traditional off-season for consumption on the demand side, it is expected that domestic downstream demand will weaken, and copper prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term.

Lithium: Rebound in the peak season may occur but will be limited.

Last week, lithium carbonate remained stable at 0.0669 million yuan. Currently in the peak demand season, the supply and demand situation in the lithium carbonate market has improved slightly. In terms of demand, the current performance is still relatively strong, and production is maintained well in November due to factors such as rush in exports, supporting spot prices, but it may intensify expectations of weak demand in the future off-season and suppress forward demand. From the supply side, looking at weekly production levels, domestic lithium carbonate production remains stable. Therefore, strong demand has led to continuous destocking of domestic lithium carbonate factory inventories. The short-term downward space for lithium carbonate prices is limited, but the upward space in the long term is also limited.

Antimony: Short-term supply and demand are relatively weak, awaiting marginal improvement.

Last week, domestic antimony prices slipped slightly, overall maintaining a weak consolidation. On the supply side, in October, China's antimony ingot (including antimony ingots, crude antimony conversions, and antimony cathodes, among others) production decreased slightly by 8.1% compared to the previous month of September. This is mainly due to overall market confidence being insufficient, with many manufacturers preparing for production cuts and shutdowns. On the demand side, exports have not shown short-term recovery, and domestic supply and demand are relatively weak. In October, China's primary production of sodium antimonate rose by 11.78% compared to September, mainly because one manufacturer resumed production. However, it is reported that this manufacturer suspended production again in November. Overall, although domestic supply and demand are relatively weak in the short term, with exports gradually recovering, coupled with pre-holiday stocking demand, antimony prices may recover and rise by the end of the year. In addition, Trump's trade policy after taking office may cause an impact.

Investment advice

Recommend focusing on Zhongjin Gold Corp.,Ltd. (600489.SH), Zijin Mining Group (601899.SH), Inner Mongolia Xingye Silver&Tin Mining (000426.SZ), Yunnan Tin Co.,Ltd. (000960.SZ), Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group (300428.SZ), CGN Mining (01164) and others.

Risk warning

Macro-economic large fluctuations, demand lower than expected, supply release exceeding expectations, company project progress slower than expected.