厨柜衣柜有所承压，木门低基数稳健增长。分产品，2024Q1-Q3 整体厨柜/定制衣柜/木门营业收入分别为16.62/15.04/2.40 亿元，同比分别为-5.18/-10.22/+0.46%。橱柜衣柜主要品类有所承压，木门品类规模较小，实现相对稳健增长。综合毛利率阶段性承压，分品类来看木门规模效益逐步显现。2024Q1-Q3 公司销售毛利率为36.83%/同比-1.58pct，净利率为7.24%/同比-1.65pct。2024Q1-Q3公司的整体橱柜/ 定制衣柜/ 木门毛利率分别为41.58%/37.76%/20.77%,同比变化分别-2.01/-1.01/+2.82pct。由于外部经济环境承压，终端零售承压致使厨衣毛利率下降，木门品类规模效应逐步显现，毛利呈现稳步提升趋势。Investment highlights:
Responding positively to the trade-in policy is expected to release demand. Driven by the national trade-in policy, the company adopted a two-way subsidy strategy to increase corporate subsidies on top of local government subsidies to fully benefit end consumers. In response to user needs, the company launched the Star Family 29,700 full meal kit to upgrade high-quality Ousong panel, Ag+ antibacterial cabinet, and BARCAHOME high-end sofa. At the same time, the whole family combines 29700, 39700, and 59700 materials and configurations to bring consumers an integrated home solution that saves worry, time, and money through the superposition of multiple categories. We believe that under the impetus of the trade-in policy, purchasing demand for home-related categories is expected to be further released, which in turn will drive the company to obtain more traffic and room for subsequent order conversion.
Performance is under pressure in the short term and is expected to maintain a steady growth trend in the medium to long term. With 2024Q1-Q3, the company achieved operating income of 3.675 billion yuan/-6.46%, net profit due to mother 0.266 billion yuan/YoY -23.80%, and net profit not attributable to mother 0.233 billion yuan/-28.32% YoY. With 2024Q3, the company achieved operating income of 1.463 billion yuan/YoY -10.14%, net profit to mother 0.117 billion yuan/YoY -30.93%, net profit not attributable to mother 0.107 billion yuan/-3.05% YoY. Affected by factors such as the actual achievement of the company's revenue scale and the pace of some expenses and rigid costs, the cost rate for the period increased year on year. 2024Q1-Q3, the company's cost ratio was 29.20%/+3.46pct year over year, of which the sales/management/ R&D/finance expenses ratio was 17.40%/6.14%/5.60%/0.06%, respectively, +2.49/+0.81/-0.15/+0.31pct.
Kitchen cabinets and wardrobes are under pressure, and the low base of wooden doors is growing steadily. By product, 2024Q1-Q3 overall kitchen cabinet/custom closet/wooden door revenue was 1.662/1.504/0.24 billion yuan, respectively, or -5.18/-10.22/ +0.46% year-on-year, respectively. The main categories of cabinets and wardrobes are under pressure, and the wooden door category is relatively small, achieving relatively steady growth. Comprehensive gross margin is under phased pressure, and the large-scale benefits of wooden doors by category are gradually showing. 2024Q1-Q3's gross sales margin was 36.83% /y-1.58pct, and the net margin was 7.24% /y-1.65pct. The gross margin of the 2024Q1-Q3 company's overall cabinet/ custom wardrobe/ wooden door was 41.58%/37.76%/20.77%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -2.01/-1.01/+2.82pct, respectively. Due to pressure on the external economic environment and pressure on terminal retail sales, the gross margin of kitchen clothes declined, the scale effect of the wooden door category gradually became apparent, and gross profit showed a steady upward trend.
Overseas channels are leading the growth, and bulk channels are still resilient. By channel, 2024Q1-Q3 direct management/distribution/bulk/overseas business revenue was 2.53/1.917/1.105/0.131 billion yuan respectively, or -16.25/ -11.81/+0.95/ +35.24% year-on-year, respectively. Bulk channels continue to grow steadily, and overseas business is growing relatively rapidly, driven by the dual core of international B-side and C-side business. The company attaches importance to the quality of store operations. The number of stores is flexibly adjusted according to category development stages and needs. As of 2024Q3, the number of overall cabinets/ custom wardrobe/ wooden doors/ direct-managed stores was 1618/1821/1120/20, a change of -97/-29/+137/-15 at the end of 2023. The total number of stores was 4,579, a net decrease of 4 from the end of 2023. The wooden door category performed relatively better, and the wooden door store is still expanding.
Profit forecast and investment rating: The company is steadily advancing its overall strategy to expand all categories. It continues to be optimistic about the steady growth of the company's retail channels and the optimization of large business customers. The multi-category omnichannel business vitality and growth momentum are fully demonstrated. For the first time, coverage gave the company a “buy” rating.
We expect the company to achieve operating income of 5.974/6.401/6.885 billion yuan in 2024-2026, and net profit to mother of 0.521/0.561/0.607 billion yuan, corresponding to 13/12/11xPE.
Risk warning: Real estate recovery falls short of expectations, terminal consumption power recovery falls short of expectations, industry competition intensifies, new category expansion falls short of expectations, raw material prices fluctuate, and exchange rate fluctuations risk.
