Source: Broker China Author: Pei Lirui Recently, due to the long-term suspension, continuous limit down, or imminent delisting of some individual stocks, fund companies are intensively lowering the valuation of individual stocks held by their fund products.

Author: Shi Qian. Will this be the arrival of the "real wolf"? The consumption tax rumors suddenly spread in various investment groups yesterday after the close of trading. There are reports that a trillion-level consumption tax reform will be approaching, and luxury goods and high-end services may be the first to test. As of the close of trading this morning, consumer stocks suddenly rebounded collectively, and retail and duty-free areas led the rise. Among them,

Just now, $ZTE Corporation (000063.SZ)$straight up limit, stock price hits over a 1-year high, with over 1.5 million shares blocked. Recently, beginning with middle letter stocks with independent and controllable technologies have been frequently surging. Earlier, $China Greatwall Technology Group (000066.SZ)$continuously in a trading halt, $China National Software & Service (600536.SH)$Also continuing to rally.$Dawning Information Industry (603019.SH)$Hit a historic high.

In the early trading today, the entire chip industry chain surged across the board, with lithography, packaging and testing, equipment, design, and other directions soaring.$Empyrean Technology (301269.SZ)$、$C*Core Technology (688262.SH)$、$Brite Semiconductor (688691.SH)$、$Shanghai Zhangjiang Hi-Tech Park Development (600895.SH)$、$TongFu Microelectronics (002156.SZ)$、$Jiangsu Dagang (002077.SZ)$、$WenYi Trinity Technology (600520.SH)$Multiple stocks such as these hit the limit up.$NAURA Technology Group (002371.SZ)$continuing to create historical highs. Against this background,$SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 Index (000688.SH)$the index once soared over 4%, with many chip-related stocks up by 20% to the limit.

Hong Kong stocks $ZTE (00763.HK)$ Once surged nearly 11%.

So, what exactly happened? Analysts believe that this is related to the rise of the domestic substitution concept. According to brokerage research reports,$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$and frequent actions by the US Congress on chips, this is bullish for the accelerated development of domestic advanced processes. Mainland AI companies are expected to accelerate the transfer of wafer production from Taiwan Semiconductor to Mainland peers, accelerating the improvement of domestic advanced processes in technology, yield, and capacity.

Sudden big outbreak

In early trading today, the STAR 50 Index surged significantly, $SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 Index (000688.SH)$ Once rose more than 4%.

At the same time, the chip sector is experiencing a major outbreak. Huada Jiutian, $Nexchip Semiconductor Corporation (688249.SH)$, Canxin shares, National Silicon Technology, $Verisilicon Microelectronics (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (688521.SH)$, Jiangsu Dagang, Tongfu Microelectronics and other multiple stocks were limit up, Naura Technology Group continued to hit historical highs. Canxin shares, $Infovision Optoelectronics(Kunshan) Co., Ltd. (688055.SH)$ and others were lifted.$GTJA Allianz CSI All Share Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment ETF (512480.SH)$Once rose more than 6.5%.

A-share technology innovation and software stocks are active again.$DHC Software (002065.SZ)$、$Insigma Technology (600797.SH)$Beijing vastdata$China Security (600654.SH)$Multiple stocks such as these hit the limit up.$Hunan Kylinsec Technology (688152.SH)$、$Beijing Tongtech (300379.SZ)$And rise more than 10%. It is worth noting that Taiwan Semiconductor fell by 1.38%, while South Korea's Samsung Electronics fell by over 2%.

The market is clearly deducing the logic of self-controllability. According to multiple brokerages citing JMicro as the source, Taiwan Semiconductor announced that starting from November 11, it will suspend the supply of all 7 nanometers and below chips to AI/GPU key customers; in addition, according to The New York Times, the US Congress is investigating 5 overseas equipment leaders including Applied Materials and ASML, requesting them to provide customer-related information.

How much emphasis on self-controllability is there?

So, how strong will this wave of emphasis on self-controllability be?

Some institutions believe that the United States is attempting to restrict the supply of advanced chips including AI GPU from the dimensions of manufacturing and manufacturing equipment, thereby slowing down China's AI development. This is bullish for the accelerated development of domestic advanced processes. Mainland AI companies are expected to accelerate the transfer of chip production from Taiwan Semiconductor to domestic counterparts, accelerating the improvement of domestic advanced processes in technology, yield, and capacity dimensions. Additionally, advanced packaging and HBM are expected to accelerate. Advanced packaging as an important means to enhance chip performance, and HBM as a supplementary chip for AI chips, both have the potential for domestic production acceleration. The import of upstream equipment/components/materials will also be accelerated. On one hand, overseas orders returning, continuously stimulating domestic fabs/testing expansion, increasing upstream purchases; on the other hand, the value amount of equipment/components/materials in advanced processes and storage in multiple links will multiply, bringing greater space.

德邦证券则认为，当前半导体国产化来到深水区，随着美国限制预期提升，以EDA、光刻机、先进封装为代表的半导体底层硬科技成为关键。其中EDA行业受益制裁收紧+技术突破+Merger政策支持，成长属性凸显。EDA与设备、材料并称为集成电路产业的三大战略基础支柱，同时也是国产替代的薄弱环节。2022年8月，美国商务部宣布对设计GAAFET结构集成电路所必须的EDA软件实施出口管制，后续美国虽然没有在EDA领域加大管制力度，但是对于其他半导体领域的管制在不断加强。随着特朗普上台，针对EDA等半导体制造工具的管制范围可能进一步扩大。

署名为招商证券电子的点评认为，美国出口管制可能加剧，持续关注国产替代+自主可控进程。根据彭博，11月7日，美国众议院向AMAT、LAM、KLA三家美国本土设备公司以及日本TEL、荷兰ASML两家设备公司发出信函，要求这些公司提供有关销售量和主要客户的详细信息。信中要求这些公司在12月1日之前提交以下信息：按收入计算，对某些国家安全或限制贸易名单上的公司的销售情况，以及任何将制造业务从美国转移到海外的计划等。

伴随美国大选结果落地，虽当前实质性制裁暂未落地，但未来美国对国内半导体出口管制政策或有望持续加剧，限制范围包括AI/GPU相关芯片、半导体设备、设备零部件、半导体材料等全产业链。伴随国内AI/GPU客户在台积电7nm产线流片受限，未来国内必将加大对$SMIC (00981.HK)$7nmN+1/N+2等工艺的依赖，同时AI/GPU芯片配套的HBM、先进封装、EDA/IP等国产化进程有望进一步加速。

另外，国盛证券认为，信创作为投资修复领军持续验证，订单正在不断落地。国资委在2024年8月发文鼓励央企带头采购、使用芯片等创新产品，同时近期信创订单落地，例如2024年9月，《$CHINA TELECOM (00728.HK)$Desktop operating system (2024) centralized procurement project》tender announcement issued, including 340,000 sets of domestically produced desktop operating systems, with a total price not exceeding 99 million yuan. Trillion-dollar information creation industry space opens up. According to the forecast of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the scale of China's information creation industry in 2023 is around 1,200 billion yuan.

Editor/Rocky