盈利预测与投资建议：我们预计公司2024/25/26 年营收45/49/53 亿元，归母净利润9.55/10.50/11.53 亿元，EPS 为0.95/1.05/1.15 元。参考可比公司，给予公司2025 年22~24x PE，对应合理价值区间20.94~22.84 元，维持“优于大市”评级。Key points of investment:
China Automobile Research announced results for the third quarter of 2024: in the third quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 1.02 billion yuan, +13.9%; realized net profit attributable to the parent company of 0.26 billion yuan, +22.0% year over year; realized net profit without return to mother was 0.23 billion yuan, +12.1% year over year.
According to the 2024 semi-annual report, all businesses developed smoothly in the first half of 2024. The automotive technology service business is guided by the market and customer needs, focusing on strategically advantageous main businesses and emerging businesses, seizing market opportunities, enhancing regional territorial service capabilities while consolidating the basic business market, and promoting new business layouts on new tracks. The current business volume increased year-on-year. The special vehicle modification and sales business continues to deepen its location advantages, optimize market development strategies, strengthen key customer expansion, and the number of new orders continues to increase, and operating income and operating costs have increased year-on-year; the rail transit and special vehicle parts business was affected by a decrease in sales of air rail products, and operating income and operating costs declined in the current period; by improving production processes and cost management, the cost reduction results in the current period were obvious, and the reduction in operating costs exceeded the decline in operating income; The automotive gas system and key components business achieved breakthroughs in the hydrogen energy sector. , operating costs increased year-on-year.
Profit forecast and investment advice: We expect the company's 2024/25/26 revenue of 4.5/4.9/5.3 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 0.955/1.05/1.153 billion yuan, and EPS of 0.95/1.05/1.15 yuan. Referring to comparable companies, the company was given 22-24x PE in 2025, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 20.94 to 22.84 yuan, maintaining a “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning: Intelligent progress falls short of expectations, chip prices are rising, and demand for passenger cars is falling.
