受益于轮胎帘子布及越南工业丝产能释放，公司业绩显著改善。前三季度公司营收同比增长2.5%，归母净利润同比增长8.94%，主要受益于轮胎帘子布第四条产线产能和越南工业丝产能完全释放。此外，1.8 万吨高性能轮胎帘子布越南项目已完成初期设计、规划、平面布置等前期工作，越南基地有助于公司承接海外市场差异化产品需求，亦享有一定税收优惠，项目投产后有望进一步增厚公司利润。Matters:
The company released its three-quarter report for 2024. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 4.368 billion yuan, a year-on-year change of +2.5%, achieved net profit of 0.296 billion yuan, a year-on-year change of +8.94%, and realized net profit after deducting 0.284 billion yuan, a year-on-year change of +1.51%; of these, in the third quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 1.491 billion yuan, a year-on-year/month-on-month change of -0.05%/-0.31%. 0.107 billion yuan, a year-on-year/month-on-month change of +6.45%/-7.05%, achieving net profit of 0.097 billion yuan after deduction, a year-over-year/month-on-month change of -0.79%/-12.36%.
Commentary:
Benefiting from the release of tire cord cloth and Vietnamese industrial yarn production capacity, the company's performance improved significantly. In the first three quarters, the company's revenue increased 2.5% year on year, and net profit to mother increased 8.94% year on year, mainly benefiting from the full release of production capacity of the fourth tire curtain cloth production line and Vietnam's industrial wire production capacity. In addition, the 0.018 million-ton high-performance tire curtain cloth project in Vietnam has completed preliminary work such as initial design, planning, and layout. The Vietnamese base helps the company meet the needs of differentiated products in overseas markets, and also enjoys certain tax benefits. It is expected that the company's profits will be further increased after the project is put into operation.
The main product is polyester industrial yarn Q3, and the price and gross profit of the industry increased month-on-month. According to Baichuan Yingfu, the average price of 2024Q3 polyester industrial yarn was 8509.8 yuan/ton, +0.69% over the previous month. On the raw material side, the average price of PTA market was 5439.47 yuan/ton, -8.23% month-on-month; the average price of ethylene glycol was 4642.29 yuan/ton, +3.8% month-on-month. The gross profit of the 2024Q3 polyester industrial yarn industry was -260.37 yuan/ton, +52.4% month-on-month. In addition, demand for polyester industrial yarn has improved markedly since this year. The apparent consumption of polyester industrial yarn in the first three quarters was 1.272 million tons, an increase of 9.3% over the previous year; the apparent consumption in the third quarter of a single quarter was 0.439 million tons, which was basically the same from month to month.
Special polymer materials are gradually being mass-produced. The company announced that recently the development of special polymer materials is gradually being mass-produced, and polyphenylene sulfide (PPS) is already on sale. Special high-performance fibers have good strength, modulus, temperature resistance and chemical resistance. They have broad application prospects in emerging fields such as aerospace, new energy vehicles, low-altitude economy, and 5G/6G communications, and are expected to have a lot of room in the domestic market. The company has excellent R&D capabilities and an efficient production line, and can quickly complete everything from sample entry to batch delivery to ensure that the customized requirements of customers are met. Currently, PPS filaments have been gradually released, and production will continue to increase in the future and expand market share.
Investment advice: Considering that the prosperity of the company's main chemical fiber and plastics industry still needs to be repaired, we lowered our profit forecast for 2024-2025 and added a profit forecast for 2026. We expect the company to achieve net profit of 0.417/0.451/0.507 billion yuan in 2024-2026, +19.5%/8.0%/12.6% year-on-year, and the corresponding EPS is 0.36/0.39/0.44 yuan. For reference, comparable companies gave the company a 25-year 14xPE, corresponding to a target price of 5.46 yuan. There is room for an increase of 22.1% compared to the current stock price, and a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuations, production capacity release falls short of expectations, product price fluctuations
