Trump's victory boosts the US stock market, and investors are looking for sector winners.
For investors, following Trump's decisive victory, the initial rebound in risk appetite in the US stock market has now faced challenging times. The Republican President-elect made many promises during his campaign: to increase tariffs, reduce taxes, relax regulation for business-friendly policies, and stricter immigration laws, among others. For investors who entered the market last week speculating on Trump's policies lifting the economy, the challenge lies in determining which industries will receive sustained boosts.
For example, tariffs could trigger inflation, damaging large multinational companies, while potentially benefiting small cap stocks in the US. However, cracking down on immigration could raise labor costs, potentially squeezing small businesses. At the same time, a friendly stance towards increasing production of traditional energy may push down oil prices, while overturning Biden's efforts to help the clean energy and electric car industries through policy could face challenges in Congress.
Eric Clark, portfolio manager at Accuvest Global Advisors, said: 'I expect active investors to start carefully selecting industries to see which companies and sectors might benefit now. Over time, we will gain more insights into the actual implementation and effectiveness of policies.'
Clark has seized some opportunities. As banks, industrials, energy, and large tech stocks boosted the market last Wednesday, he sold some technology and financial stocks. He also bought luxury goods retail and basic consumer stocks, which were in a loss position during the market surge.
More Obvious Winners
Small cap stocks rebounded last week, seemingly in a favorable position as traders assess the potential policy backdrop in the future. Most of these companies generate a majority of their revenue domestically in the US, positioning them to benefit from protectionist trends. Possible corporate tax cuts could also provide assistance.
Trump proposed comprehensive tariffs of 10% to 20% on imported commodities, with tariffs as high as 60% on goods manufactured in China. The prospect of at least some tariffs being implemented has driven the performance of small cap stock benchmarks.$Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$Up 8.6% last week. A digital payment company.$Sezzle (SEZL.US)$One of the companies with the largest increase in this index, doubling its stock price during this period.
Financial stocks are also seen as being in a strong position, as Trump promises to reform regulatory agencies implementing stricter banking rules under Biden's leadership. As banking industry analyst Mike Mayo of Wells Fargo stated, a new era of deregulation could enhance the profitability of Wall Street banks. The stock prices of Citigroup (C.US), Goldman Sachs (GS.US), and JPMorgan (JPM.US) surged after Trump's victory.
Barclays US stock strategist Venu Krishna stated, "The market is eager to digest Trump's domestic growth policies through small-cap stocks, and is looking to relax regulations by betting on financial and large technology stocks."
Meanwhile,$Caterpillar (CAT.US)$等工业和机械公司有望从能源和矿业大宗商品的国内生产中获益。杰富瑞分析师Stephen Volkmann重申 $Caterpillar (CAT.US)$ 是他对该行业的首选,部分原因是该公司在中国的业务有限。他还说,$Fastenal (FAST.US)$And.$W.W. Grainger (GWW.US)$等工业用品分销商在转嫁关税上调等成本上涨方面有着良好的记录。
打击移民的前景是投资者正在密切关注的一个潜在不利因素。不过,也有一些公司可能从中受益,比如 $CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW.US)$And$The GEO Group Inc (GEO.US)$Private prison operators.
More complex situation.
Meanwhile, some on Wall Street express doubts about certain market trends after the election. Given Trump's pro-oil stance, traditional energy stocks including oil & gas companies saw significant gains after Trump's election win. However, industry observers caution that efforts to relax regulations and allow more fossil fuel extraction on public lands could lead to oversupply and lower prices.
Considering the significant exposure of retailers to China through the supply chain, they plummeted last week and are likely to become investors' targets as tariff negotiations heat up. Barclays analyst Seth Sigman said discount chain stores and housewares companies may be most affected. He named$Five Below (FIVE.US)$、 $Dollar Tree (DLTR.US)$ And electronics retailers.$Best Buy (BBY.US)$and others.
However, according to Clark, some consumer goods companies appear to be very attractive because any tariff increase may not be fair to all companies. He said: "I am not too worried about imposing high tariffs on European luxury brands, such as $LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (LVMHF.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Hermes International SA (HESAY.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$L'Oreal SA Unsponsored ADR (LRLCY.US)$ 、$Ferrari (RACE.US)$Wait.
For another industry that suffered heavy losses last week - clean energy and renewable energy - the situation is equally complicated. The iShares Global Clean Energy ETF had its worst week since March. However, the outlook may not be as terrible. Trump has indicated his intention to repeal the Clean Energy Incentive Act aimed at promoting clean energy use, including electric vehicles, but analysts believe the likelihood of a complete repeal is low. One key reason is that the act triggered a wave of investments in Republican districts.
Royal Bank of Canada capital markets analyst Christopher Dendrinos said that the specter of this shift poses a threat to the industry as investors await clarity. He said: "On the other hand, people expect policy changes to take a long time to pass, or even longer to implement, weakening the overall impact and potentially changing again after the next administration takes office."
Analyst Dendrinos pointed out that other factors of the Trump policy may even help some stocks. The analyst expects that, given the protectionist agenda and strong domestic demand,$First Solar (FSLR.US)$And.$Fluence Energy (FLNC.US)$will outperform its peers.
Editor/rice