业务调整进行时，期待净利率重返上行区间。①毛利率：24Q1-3 为67.61%（同比-13.90pct，环比-2.08pct），24Q3 为63.95%（同比-14.99pct，环比-4.14pct），主要系人工晶体国采落地出厂调价+相对低毛利率软镜工厂持续放量，期待晶体价格调整完毕+软镜规模效应提升毛利率后的整体盈利能力回升；②期间费用率：24Q1-3 销售费用率14.03%（-4.97pct），管理费用率11.23%（-0.06pct），研发费用率7.22%（-2.46pct），财务费用率1.11%（+0.96pct），核心关注彩瞳业务铺开后的费用率稀释；③净利率：24Q1-3 为28.28%（同比-8.19pct，环比-0.77pct），期待晶体与软镜业务稳定后的利润贡献。Incidents:
On October 29, 2024, Aibo Healthcare released its 2024 third quarter report. 24Q1-3 achieved revenue of 1.075 billion yuan (+60.94%) and net profit of 0.318 billion yuan (+26.04%); of these, 24Q3 achieved revenue of 0.39 billion yuan (+49.11%) and net profit of 0.11 billion yuan (+23.38%) to mother.
Comment:
As business adjustments take place, net interest rates are expected to return to an upward range. ① Gross profit margin: 24Q1-3 was 67.61% (year-on-year -13.90pct, month-on-month -2.08pct), 24Q3 was 63.95% (-14.99pct, month-on-month -4.14pct), mainly due to artificial crystals, factory price adjustments, and continuous production in relatively low gross margin soft mirror factories. Expected overall profitability recovery after crystal price adjustment+soft mirror scale effect increases gross margin; ② Expense rate for the period: 24Q1-3 sales expense ratio 14.03% (-4.97pct), management cost ratio 11.23% (-0.06pct), R&D expense ratio 7.22% (-2.46pct), financial expense ratio 1.11% (+0.96pct), the core focus is on cost rate dilution after the inception of the iris business; ③ Net interest rate: 24Q1-3 is 28.28% (-8.19pct year over year, -0.77pct month-on-month), and is expected to contribute to profits after stabilizing the crystal and soft mirror business.
A simple fixed increase plan was issued, and production was further expanded at the Tianyan Plant in Jiangsu. The simple fixed increase plan plans to raise no more than 0.3 billion yuan, of which 0.26 billion yuan will be used for the Jiangsu Tianyan factory expansion project. The total investment of the project is 0.382 billion yuan, and the planned construction period of the project is 3 years. After completion, the project will form an annual production capacity of 0.252 billion soft mirrors and 500 million sets of male and female models; the remaining 0.04 billion yuan will be used to supplement working capital.
R&D platform-based company, product pipeline continuous improvement and rapid expansion. ① Ophthalmic surgery products: PR crystals and depth of field extension crystals have been declared for registration, and trifocal astigmatism crystals continue to advance clinically, and it is expected that high-end domestic alternatives will contribute to the results; ② Myopia prevention and control products: various nursing solution products have been registered, and keratin NOP clinical progress rapidly; ③ Medical and aesthetic products: The company also has a variety of injectable cross-linked sodium hyaluronate gel, freeze-dried fiber with cell-free matrix, etc., in the clinical phase.
Profit forecast and investment advice: The company is a leading manufacturer of ophthalmic consumables in China. It has strong technology and sales. Crystal Mining helps the rapid release of high-end domestic consumables, and the expansion of production capacity helps the profitability of the soft mirror business climb. Considering changes in the consumer environment and the latest financial data, we expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 1.416/2.015/2.791 billion yuan (previous value 13.79/19.76/27.42) and net profit to mother of 0.396/0.512/0.759 billion yuan (previous value 3.72/5.05/7.58), corresponding to 2024-2026 PE 46X/36X/24X. We give the company a “buy” rating.
