On the 11th, the Japanese stock market is likely to develop into a tight market situation after starting with a selling lead. On the 8th, the US market saw the NY Dow rise by 259 points, and the Nasdaq rise by 17 points. Buying based on policy expectations from the Trump administration continued. Following the previous day's press conference by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Federal Reserve Board (FRB) Chairman Powell hinted at further interest rate cuts, and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index exceeded financial estimates, leading to a sense of reassurance. The Chicago Nikkei 225 futures settlement price closed 365 yen lower than Osaka at 39,135 yen. The yen is trading around 152.70 yen to the dollar.

The Nikkei Stock Average is likely to start with a dominant selling trend, following the Chicago futures. The Nikkei 225 futures briefly fell below the milestone of 39,000 yen in the night session. The 25-day moving average, which moves at the same level, is likely to be considered a support line. However, amidst peak earnings reports, the scope for aggressive rebound movements seems limited. Additionally, while the major 3 indices in the USA are hitting record highs simultaneously, weak price movements in semiconductor stocks are noticeable, and the SOX index is declining. There is a possibility that prominent stocks impacting the index, such as Advantest <6857> and Toyo Electric <8035>, may become burdens on the high-tech sector.

In the USA, the Trump trade continues, and the VIX index, at 14.94, indicates a state of heightened anxiety, having clearly dropped below the recognized 20.00 threshold, making it more favorable towards risk. However, movements cautious of significant tariffs by the Trump administration, like the weak price action in semiconductor stocks, are also observed. Moreover, the Nikkei Stock Average, at the November SQ end of the week, could not reach the SQ value (39,901.35 yen). Initially, while gauging the strength of the downside, it is likely to take a stance of buying on dips.

Market movements are likely to be based on individual responses using earnings as a clue, and among the companies that announced earnings after the end of trading on the 8th, focus is on Secom <9735>, Olympus <7733>, Tokyu <9005>, Keikyu <9006>, Mitsubishi Aluminum <5711>, Mitsui Mining <5706>, Toshiba Tec <6588>, Daifuku <6383>, Kaken Pharmaceutical <4521>, Kosan Fragrance <4914>, I-Style <3660>, ips <4390>, Nihon Electric <6951>, and more. Over 1,400 companies are announcing earnings this week, peaking on the 14th. Subsequently, institutions are likely to move more actively, and there may be a conscious shift towards reconsidering buying opportunities in significantly sold-off stocks.

Furthermore, a special parliamentary session will be convened today, holding an election to nominate the Prime Minister. It is expected that Shigeru Ishiba will be elected as the 103rd Prime Minister after a run-off vote. There may be interest in theme stocks such as regional revitalization due to policy expectations towards the Ishiba administration.