The investors in Caribou Biosciences, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:CRBU) will be rubbing their hands together with glee today, after the share price leapt 21% to US$2.68 in the week following its quarterly results. Statutory losses were much smaller than expected, at just US$0.38 per share, even though revenues of US$2.0m missed analyst expectations by a remarkable 35%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Caribou Biosciences after the latest results.
After the latest results, the seven analysts covering Caribou Biosciences are now predicting revenues of US$12.3m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 7.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are supposed to see a sharp uptick, reaching US$1.88. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$12.8m and losses of US$1.95 per share in 2025. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers fell somewhat.
There was no major change to the US$15.50average price target, suggesting that the adjustments to revenue and earnings are not expected to have a long-term impact on the business. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Caribou Biosciences, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$30.00 and the most bearish at US$3.00 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Caribou Biosciences' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 5.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 33% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 21% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Caribou Biosciences.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$15.50, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Caribou Biosciences analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Caribou Biosciences (1 is a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
