As you might know, Fathom Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:FTHM) last week released its latest third-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$84m missing analyst predictions by 8.8%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$0.40 per share, much larger than the analysts had forecast prior to the result. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Fathom Holdings' four analysts is for revenues of US$407.4m in 2025. This would reflect a major 28% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 49% to US$0.58. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$409.7m and losses of US$0.58 per share in 2025.
The consensus price target was unchanged at US$4.44, suggesting that the business - losses and all - is executing in line with estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Fathom Holdings at US$8.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$3.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Fathom Holdings'historical trends, as the 22% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 21% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 11% per year. So it's pretty clear that Fathom Holdings is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Fathom Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Fathom Holdings is showing 5 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
