It's been a good week for MP Materials Corp. (NYSE:MP) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest third-quarter results, and the shares gained 7.0% to US$19.50. Revenues came in 57% better than analyst models expected, at US$63mwhile statutory losses per share were US$0.16, in line with forecasts. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from MP Materials' twelve analysts is for revenues of US$336.9m in 2025. This reflects a substantial 83% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory losses are forecast to balloon 84% to US$0.057 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$371.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.095 in 2025. There looks to have been a significant drop in sentiment regarding MP Materials' prospects after these latest results, with a small dip in revenues and the analysts now forecasting a loss instead of a profit.
There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$21.22, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on MP Materials, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$30.00 and the most bearish at US$12.50 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting MP Materials' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 62% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 16% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.4% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect MP Materials to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest low-light for us was that the forecasts for MP Materials dropped from profits to a loss next year. They also downgraded MP Materials' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$21.22, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for MP Materials going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also see whether MP Materials is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
