高增主要系下游需求向好，叠加净利率提升。远程/混合办公等新常态激发企业通信需求，此前经销商库存已回归健康合理水平，下游需求延续边际改善趋势，各产品线均稳健推进，业务持续性向好。同时，公司继续完善企业通信解决方案，拓展销售渠道，长期竞争优势下，净利率也可见显著提升，24Q1-3 净利率达50.24%，此前23 年净利率为46.23%。Key points of investment:
Event: On October 22, 2024, the company announced its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 4.11 billion yuan, up 27.5% year on year. Previously, the forecast was 4.03-4.19 billion yuan; net profit to mother was 2.065 billion yuan, up 27.9% year on year, compared with the previous forecast of 2.02-2.1 billion yuan.
The high increase in performance was in line with expectations. Looking at Q3 alone, revenue of 1.443 billion yuan was achieved, up 22.3% year on year. Previously forecast was 1.416-1.475 billion yuan; net profit to mother was 0.704 billion yuan, up 20.5% year on year; previously forecast 0.69-0.719 billion yuan.
The high increase was mainly due to improved downstream demand, compounded by an increase in net interest rates. The new normal, such as remote/hybrid work, has stimulated enterprise communication needs. Previously, dealer inventory had returned to a healthy and reasonable level, downstream demand continued to improve marginally, all product lines were progressing steadily, and business continuity was improving. At the same time, the company continues to improve enterprise communication solutions and expand sales channels. Under long-term competitive advantage, the net interest rate also showed a significant increase. The 24Q1-3 net interest rate reached 50.24%, compared to 46.23% for the previous 23 years.
Conference products+cloud office terminals, second curve business growth. According to the company's announcement, 24Q3 new business investment showed initial results. The cloud office terminal business achieved month-on-month growth in each quarter, returning to the leading position in the three business lines; conference products progressed steadily and in an orderly manner and grew positively; and desktop communication terminals still achieved healthy growth. Prior to 24H1, conference product revenue increased 51% year over year, cloud office terminal revenue increased 29% year over year, and desktop communication terminal revenue increased 20% year over year.
The product matrix planning is clear and covers all scenarios. In terms of conference products, the new products mainly focus on planning and layout for rich and improved conference room solutions. 24Q3 launched the MeetingEye 900 split video conference terminal, UVC40 E2 ultra-clear smart USB conference all-in-one machine, etc., to enhance the video conferencing user experience. In terms of cloud office terminals, around the idea of building a complete product matrix and enhancing overall competitiveness, continuous improvement and market verification, channel expansion progresses in an orderly manner; the new product uses the BH series Bluetooth headset as the core, following the idea of high-quality audio performance, and the 24Q3 iterative update launched the BH74 premium Bluetooth wireless headset.
Q4 will release new products such as the audio and video conferencing tablet MeetingBoard 65/75/86 Pro, the ceiling microphone CM50, and the A40 conference room all-in-one computer, all of which are expected to contribute additional revenue in the future.
From a fixed income perspective, Yilian Network has a combination of dividend returns and historical valuation quantile advantages, and is a core asset class that has been overlooked by the market. Yilian Network announced a dividend rate of 87.9% at the end of '23. The dividend yield corresponding to the current market capitalization is 3.4%, the PE fraction (calculated since early 2018) is only 12%, and the performance margin is improving, and there is plenty of room for valuation repair.
Maintain a “buy” rating. We believe that as a core telecommunications company, the company has strong profitability, and its performance is expected to continue to increase as demand continues to improve marginally. Maintaining the profit forecast, the company's net profit for 24-26 is estimated to be 2.515/3.13/3.88 billion yuan, corresponding PE 21/17/13 times (comparable to the company's PE 32/25/20 times).
Risk warning: VCS/business headset business development falls short of expectations, new product sales fall short of expectations, impact of external emergencies, etc.
