分析师Seth Carpenter认为，尽管特朗普政府有望在关税、移民政策和财政政策等方面实施新的措施，Analysis suggests that although the Trump administration is expected to implement new measures in areas such as tariffs, immigration, and fiscal policy, due to the time lag in policy implementation, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to adjust policies at the meetings in January or March next year, with the earliest reaction window possibly in May next year.
The market may have had overly high expectations for the impact of the new US government's policies, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustment speed will not be as rapid as the market expects.
morgan stanley's research reports released on the 8th stated that even if Trump is re-elected and the US Congress may be controlled by the Republican Party, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to react to the new government's policies before May next year.
analyst Seth Carpenter believes that although the Trump administration is expected to implement new measures in areas such as tariffs, immigration policies, and fiscal policies, the Federal Reserve will not immediately adjust its monetary policy due to policy execution lag.
This week, Powell also stated in the latest press conference that they do not speculate on or presume Trump's policies, but will model and incorporate them into their dual mandate framework. This means that the Federal Reserve will decide on the pace of rate hikes based on changes in economic data, rather than market sentiment or direct political influence.
It will be quite a long time before the policies take effect, and the Federal Reserve may not be eager to adjust its policies in the short term.
mrgan stanley emphasizes that despite the strong push of policy expectations on market sentiment, due to the Federal Reserve's stance of staying put, they need to observe how policies impact the economy before adjusting monetary policy. These policies may come into effect as early as January next year, and with implementation and other changes, the waiting time may be even longer.
Therefore, analysts believe that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to adjust its policy at the January or March meetings next year, and the earliest response window may be in May next year.
"People must realize this fact: the Federal Reserve will not react until the impact of policy changes is evident in the data itself."
The three major policy influences on the interest rate policy path: tariffs, immigration, and fiscal.
Morgan Stanley divides the macroeconomic policies of the Trump administration mainly into three areas: tariffs, immigration, and fiscal. The report predicts that the Trump administration's tariff policy will be one of the earliest policies to be implemented. If a 10% tariff is imposed on other countries globally, the core inflation rate of the US economy may increase by about 0.9 percentage points, while GDP growth rate may decrease by about 1.5 percentage points.
Although the new tariff policy may be implemented in phases, Morgan Stanley believes that the negative impact of tariffs will have a certain restraining effect on economic growth, even though the current US economy is relatively robust and may not immediately lead to a recession.
Furthermore, the report points out that although immigration reform is usually not considered a market focus, reducing immigration will limit the US labor supply, thereby increasing inflationary pressures.
Regarding fiscal policy, the report suggests that if the Trump administration successfully pushes for the continuation of tax policies, the US economy will not receive significant fiscal stimulus before 2025, with 'any changes only happening in 2026'. Any additional fiscal expenditure may mainly come from reviving state and local tax relief policies, but their overall economic stimulus effect is limited.
Editor/Somer
