医药工业：24Q3 收入32.43 亿元（含CSO 业务），同比增长10.32%，归母净利润7.55 亿元，同比增长20.44%。存量业务方面，中成药联盟集采规则温和，预计百令胶囊定价相对友好，吲哚布芬未纳入第十批国采，因此我们预计存量品种短期不会对业绩造成拖累。创新业务方面，卵巢癌ADC ELAHERE、乌司奴单抗、自免罕见病品种ARCALYST 等产品均处于NDA 阶段。公司持续推进创新研发，当前已拥有超过70 项新品，产品种类包含小分子、多肽、ADC、双抗等方向。Matters:
Recently, the company released its 2024 three-quarter report. The Q1-3 revenue was 31.478 billion yuan (+3.56%), net profit due to mother was 2.562 billion yuan (+17.05%), after deducting non-net profit of 2.482 billion yuan (+14.90%), after deducting equity incentive expenses and profit and loss effects of participating R&D institutions, etc., after deducting non-net profit of 2.739 billion yuan (+26.81%). Q3 revenue was 10.513 billion yuan (+5.03%), net profit to mother of 0.866 billion yuan (+14.71%), after deducting non-net profit of 0.857 billion yuan (+16.93%). The results were in line with expectations.
Commentary:
Pharmaceutical industry: 24Q3 revenue of 3.243 billion yuan (including CSO business), up 10.32% year on year, and net profit to mother of 0.755 billion yuan, up 20.44% year on year. In terms of stock business, the Proprietary Chinese Medicine Alliance has mild collection rules. It is expected that the pricing of Bailing capsules will be relatively friendly. Indobuphine was not included in the tenth batch of national procurement, so we do not expect the stock varieties to drag down performance in the short term. In terms of innovative business, products such as the ovarian cancer ADC ELAHERE, usinumab, and ARCALYST, a free rare disease variant, are all in the NDA stage. The company continues to promote innovative research and development. Currently, it has more than 70 new products. The product categories include small molecules, peptides, ADC, and double antibodies.
Medical and aesthetic sector: 1) Domestic medical and aesthetic medicine, Xinclair's 24Q3 revenue was 0.291 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.55%. Domestic medicine and aesthetics were affected by business adjustments, and revenue declined in the third quarter; 2) Overseas medical and aesthetic, UK Sinclair's revenue was 0.206 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.36%. Affected by factors such as weak global economic growth, overseas medicine and aesthetics did not improve in the third quarter.
Industrial microbiology: The overall sales trend continues to improve. From January to September 2024, the total sales revenue was 0.443 billion yuan, an increase of 30.17% over the previous year. With the continuous expansion of overseas markets and the continuous increase in the number of cooperative customers, the overall industrial microbiology sector is expected to continue to grow rapidly.
Investment advice: We expect the company's net profit to be 3.39, 3.94, and 4.52 billion yuan in 2024-2026, respectively, up 19.3%, 16.4%, and 14.7% year-on-year. The current stock price corresponds to PE of 19, 16, and 14 times.
According to the segmented valuation calculation, the company's 2025 pharmaceutical industry has a corresponding valuation of 63.1 billion yuan (traditional pharmaceuticals+12.1 billion yuan for innovative drugs and biosimilars +8.3 billion yuan for industrial microorganisms), the corresponding valuation for the medical and aesthetic business is 13.4 billion yuan, the pharmaceutical business is 5.3 billion yuan, and the reasonable valuation of the company in 2025 is 81.8 billion yuan.
Maintain a “Recommended” rating.
Risk warning: 1. The development progress of innovative drugs and medical and aesthetic products falls short of expectations; 2. Drug collection and medical insurance cost control have increased; 3. The competitive pattern in the endocrine, self-immunity, and oncology drug markets has deteriorated.
