By now, all provinces nationwide have introduced and implemented the auto replacement subsidy policy, as well as launching strong vehicle purchase incentives to boost consumption. The subsidy amounts per vehicle are considerable, bringing a new wave of growth to the auto market. With the national scrappage policy and various local replacement policies fully implemented in October, driving significant growth in the auto market, combined with the Golden Week effect in October, the auto market is showing a rapid growth trend, with the noticeable 'Silver September, Gold October' effect. Recent stock market gains and stabilization in the real estate market have significant effects on the recovery of residents' assets, and the long-term positive stock market will inevitably provide sustained growth momentum for the auto market.

Characteristics of the passenger vehicle market in October:

1. In October, retail, wholesale, production, and exports of passenger vehicles all reached historical highs for the month, with exports driving wholesales to achieve historical highs for each month since data collection began.

Secondly, in October, the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 7% month-on-month compared to September, reaching a new high. This is a manifestation of explosive growth in new energy vehicles, reflecting the market's positive response to the national scrappage renewal and 'dual new' policies. The domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 50% for four consecutive months, with October traditionally being a low penetration month for new energy vehicles. However, this October, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles also reached 52.8%, an increase of 16 percentage points from October 2023, continuing to set new records for penetration rate.

Price wars have stabilized, with fewer price promotions from July to October compared to the frequency from April to June. Traditional rbob gasoline car promotions in October slightly contracted compared to September.

Fourth, the new energy export still maintains a good growth trend, with a 10% year-on-year increase in new energy exports in October, a 14% increase compared to the previous month, slightly down from the 28% export growth from January to October.

Both wholesale and retail trends are strong, with overall manufacturer inventory still decreasing and the circulation ecosystem stabilizing.

The high and low-end segmented markets in October showed good growth. The national scrappage program drove the growth of the economy-type electric vehicle market, offsetting seasonal fluctuations. Local replacement subsidies drove growth in the mid to high-end segmented markets.

Seventh, the sales volume of popular car models continues to break through. In October, there were 28 passenger vehicle models with wholesale sales exceeding 20,000 units (up from 23 in the previous month), including BYD's Song model exceeding 0.1 million in October.

1. Recent trends in narrow definition passenger vehicle retail.

In 2024, the domestic retail of passenger vehicles showed a continuous upward trend from March to October, with narrow definition passenger vehicle retail reaching 2.26 million units in October, an 11% year-on-year increase, a 7% increase compared to the previous month, with two consecutive months of positive growth.

In 2023, the retail market for vehicles remained strong, with retail sales from May to October exceeding those from March, a strong characteristic. In October last year, sales exceeded March by 0.43 million units, this year also achieved a strong growth with October increasing by 0.57 million compared to March, maintaining a strong trend throughout the year.

In October, national narrow definition passenger vehicle retail reached 2.26 million units, an 11% year-on-year increase, a 7% increase compared to the previous month; cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year reached 17.84 million units, a 3% year-on-year increase. Among these, conventional gasoline vehicle retail in October stood at 1.07 million units, a 16% year-on-year decrease, an 8% increase compared to the previous month; from January to October, conventional gasoline vehicle retail reached 9.51 million units, a 16% year-on-year decrease. The domestic new energy vehicle retail penetration rate in October reached 52.8%.

Due to the early timing of the Spring Festival in 2023, the retail performance in January 2024 was very strong, mainly due to base factors. The pressure of a 3% decline from May to September was significant, but October showed strong growth, especially on a month-on-month basis. With the support of nearly a hundred billion in scrap renewal at the national level, there is still potential for a good recovery and growth in the future.

Wholesale sales trends for narrow passenger cars in recent years.

In October, the national passenger vehicle manufacturers wholesaled 2.73 million units, a 12% year-on-year increase and an 8.8% month-on-month increase. The cumulative wholesale volume since the beginning of the year is 21.18 million units, a 4% year-on-year increase. Due to the promotion of inventory replenishment by car manufacturers, wholesale of passenger vehicles hit a new high in October.

In October, the trend of a 12% year-on-year increase in wholesales of 2.73 million units of passenger vehicles nationwide was strong, setting a new high for the month of October in recent years. The performance of a 4% year-on-year increase in sales volume of 21.18 million units from January to October also hit a historical high.

Production trends for narrow passenger cars in recent years.

In October, 2.64 million passenger vehicles were produced, an 8% year-on-year increase and an 8.6% month-on-month increase. October's passenger vehicle production increased by 0.19 million units compared to the historical high of 2.45 million units in 2023.

From January to October, 20.89 million passenger vehicles were produced, a 3% year-on-year increase; in October, 2.64 million units were produced, an 8% year-on-year increase. Currently, the production capacity of passenger vehicles is very strong, but from June to October, it has been relatively restrained. In October, some major enterprises made strong adjustments to production to stabilize inventory, ensuring the balance of inventory in the dealer system, especially with the trend of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and the decrease in upstream resource prices, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are relatively cautious.

4. Characteristics of monthly changes in production, sales, and inventory.

Due to the cautious production by manufacturers in October, wholesale remained low, resulting in monthly manufacturer production lower than wholesale by 0.09 million vehicles. Meanwhile, manufacturers monthly domestic wholesale exceeded retail by 0.03 million vehicles, leading to a peak season trend of comprehensive destocking by manufacturers, with a significant improvement in dealer operations pressure with channel destocking of 0.31 million vehicles from September to October. Due to the continuous destocking trend of joint venture automakers, overall production has been cautious recently, with manufacturer inventory decreasing by 0.29 million vehicles from January to October (0.05 million less than the same period last year). Overall, passenger vehicle domestic channel inventory decreased by 0.94 million vehicles (0.11 million less than the same period last year).

5. Trends in narrow passenger car promotions

A. The promotion efforts of new energy vehicles have greatly increased.

The promotion of new energy vehicles has gradually reached a high level. In recent months, promotions have continued to increase, with a significant decrease in new energy vehicle promotions after April due to price cuts. As the new cars that were discounted in the spring are delivered, promotions are inevitably decreasing and have now returned to the normal promotion level after October 2021.

B. Trends in the promotion of fuel vehicles.

The promotion of traditional fuel vehicles surged in September 2023, with a relative decrease to 18.1% in February 2024. It rebounded from March to June and is currently at a recent high level of around 22% from July to October, with promotion slowing down in October due to policy subsidies.

C. Trends in luxury car promotions

Although consumption upgrade is driving strong demand for high-end luxury vehicles, the promotion intensity reached a historical high level of 25.1% in July due to the diversion of new energy vehicles. With BMW stabilizing prices by reducing production, luxury car promotions decreased to 24.9% in September and rose to 25.7% in October.

D. Trend of mainstream joint venture vehicles for promotional sales.

Promotion of joint ventures has grown dramatically, from a low of 13% in 2023, further increased this year, reaching 22.6% in September and dropping to 21.3% in October.

E. Trend of independent fuel vehicle promotions.

Overall, the overall promotion of independent car companies in recent months has been relatively stable. Due to the smaller promotion of new energy vehicles by independent companies compared to gasoline vehicles, the proportion of exports has increased, leading to relatively stable overall promotions.

F, tracking the promotion intensity of gasoline vehicles.

Divergent trends of various series of joint venture vehicles. European and Korean brands show weaker market trends with the highest promotional efforts, while Japanese brands had lesser efforts in the past but have shown significant growth recently.

Recently, there has been a significant increase in promotional efforts by joint venture car manufacturers. Previously resilient brands like German and Japanese are facing further price promotions. Especially compared to October last year, after a year of changes, German and Japanese brands have caught up with the promotional efforts of Korean and American brands, leading to a comprehensive surge in promotional activities of joint venture brands. This reflects the huge competitive pressure on joint venture brands, which went from being secondary brands facing great competition to now rapidly increasing pressure on first-tier brands, resulting in joint venture brands having fewer profitable options. Joint venture car manufacturers are facing severe pressure challenges.

6. Growth characteristics of various levels of narrow passenger vehicles.

In October 2024, the retail growth rate of passenger vehicles was the same as wholesale. The weaker demand for sedans in October due to fuel vehicles caused a decrease in the proportion of sedan sales. Sedan retail was lower than SUV retail in October, with higher-end B-segment sedans performing well. Sales of A00 segment sedans increased, but A0 segment sedan sales suffered significant losses.

The high-end SUV market is strong, with strong year-on-year comparisons for B-class and C-class SUVs compared to last year.

7. Characteristics of narrow passenger vehicle growth by country.

Mainstream joint venture brand retail sales in October reached 0.57 million vehicles, a 17% year-on-year decrease but an 8% monthly increase. German brands accounted for 15.8% of the retail market share in October, down by 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while Japanese brands accounted for 12.9%, down by 4.8 percentage points. American brand market share reached 4%, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points compared to the previous year.

Independent brands have achieved significant increases in the new energy market and export market. Top traditional automotive enterprises have performed well in transformation and upgrading, with significant increases in market share for traditional automotive enterprise brands such as Chery, Geely, BYD, Changan, and Great Wall.

8. 2024 brand production and sales characteristics.

In October, the industry differentiation intensified, leading to changes in the existing brand value system. Joint venture automotive enterprises faced tremendous pressure in production and sales, especially with a sharp decline in retail, resulting in a severe crisis in the industry chain of joint venture brands.

9. National new energy wholesale penetration rate.

In October, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers was 50.1%, an increase of 14 percentage points from the 36% penetration rate in October 2023.

10月，自主品牌新能源车渗透率65%；豪华车中的新能源车渗透率35%；而主流合资品牌新能源车渗透率仅有6%。

10月传统车厂家批发同比下降13%，而新能源车零售同比上升55%，增速差距68个点，燃油车压力较大。

10.全国新能源渗透率-零售

10月新能源车国内零售渗透率52.8%，较去年同期渗透率提升15个百分点。

10月国内零售中，自主品牌中的新能源车渗透率74.6%；豪华车中的新能源车渗透率24.9%；而主流合资品牌中的新能源车渗透率仅有6.2%。

10月传统车零售同比下降16%，而新能源车零售同比上升56%，相差72个点，燃油车税负重，压力较大。

This article is reproduced from the WeChat public account "Cui Dongshu"; Edited by Zhitong Finance: Wenwen.