维持“增持”评级。公司发布三季报业绩报告，2024Q1-Q3营收72.48亿元（+16.76%），归母净利润10.31 亿元（+42.92%）；Q3 单季度营收21.19 亿元（+10.76%），归母净利润2.83 亿元（+85.09%），利润符合预期。维持2024-2026 年EPS 预测为0.90/1.10/1.33 元，参考可比公司估值，给予2025 年PE21X，维持目标价22.50 元，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
Improve quality and efficiency, improve profitability under lean transformation, and gradually advance the innovation pipeline.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. The company released the three-quarter performance report, with 2024Q1-Q3 revenue of 7.248 billion yuan (+16.76%), net profit of 1.031 billion yuan (+42.92%); Q3 single quarter revenue of 2.119 billion yuan (+10.76%), and net profit of 0.283 billion yuan (+85.09%) to mother. Profit is in line with expectations. Maintaining the 2024-2026 EPS forecast of 0.90/1.10/1.33 yuan, referring to comparable company valuations, the 2025 PE21X will be given, the target price will be maintained at 22.50 yuan, and the “additional” rating will be maintained.
Improve quality and efficiency and improve profitability under lean management. The 2024Q1-Q3 gross profit margin was 62.66%, up 3.7 pct year on year, and the Q3 gross profit margin was 64.26%, up 7.93 pct year on year, and 0.1 pct month on month, mainly due to continuous optimization of the product structure and continuous improvement of lean management and technical improvement capabilities combined with the combined scale effect. The reporting period focused on sales team fission and organizational structure reform. The lower level of the channel superimposed the global sales network layout. The 2024Q1-Q3 sales expense ratio was 18.61%, up 2.91 pcts year on year; the management expense ratio was 13.67%, down 0.93 pct year on year; the R&D cost ratio was 9.49%, down 1.26 pct year on year. The gross margin increased superimposed cost optimization, and the net profit margin reached 14.31%, up 2.82 pct year on year.
Strengthen the Biopharmaceutical and Innovative Drug Research and Development Bureau. As of 2024H1, the company has registered more than 70 domestic approvals (including Changxing Pharmaceutical), and more than 120 research projects; the US formulation has obtained nearly 100 ANDA numbers; biopharmaceutical research and development has accelerated, with more than 20 ongoing research projects, 12 of which are in different clinical stages. HB0034 targets IL-36R humanized IgG1 monoclonal antibody key phase II clinical trial has completed the first patient enrollment in March 2024; HB0017 targets IL-17A monoclonal antibody in patients with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis exhibition The critical phase III clinical trial has completed enrolling all patients. The self-developed bispecific fusion protein HB0025 targeting VEGF and PD-L1 has simultaneously carried out a single-drug phase I clinical trial in China and the United States. At the same time, multiple phase IB/II clinical trials of single drugs or combined doses have been carried out domestically, showing good tolerability and safety, and clinical progress is being actively promoted. The innovation pipeline is expected to gradually materialize.
Catalysts: Drug approval progress is accelerating, product terminal demand exceeds expectations Risk warning: risk of price fluctuation of APIs, risk of price reduction in formulation collection, drug development approval risk