核心看点：配网改造大势所趋，配电业务蓄势待发。受分布式新能源和新型负荷发展驱动，配网投资逐年扩大。根据中电联，23 年全国配电网投资约2902 亿元，同比+5.4%，占比55.0%。根据国网电子商务平台，24 年1-9 月国网网省物资中标金额同比+50.60%，与23 年（+20.7%）相比明显提速。24 年《配电网高质量发展行动实施方案（2024-2027年）》等文件要求进一步加快配电网升级改造。公司配电产品布局全面，根据国网电子商务平台，公司23 年配变市占率排名TOP10，柱上断路器市占率排名TOP5，有望享受行业高增+市占率提升红利。Core views:
In order to distribute electric faucets, the company transformed the passenger distribution network to Dongfeng to accelerate growth. The company started with power automation and has been deeply involved in the industry for 40 years. Its products cover all aspects of transmission, transmission, transformation and distribution. New products+new customer expansion help the company cross the power grid investment cycle, and it is expected that the future will fully benefit from distribution network transformation and operational efficiency improvement.
According to the company's three-quarter report, in the first three quarters of 24, the company achieved revenue of 4.631 billion yuan, +12.96% year over year; net profit to mother was 0.421 billion yuan, +22.26% year over year.
Core highlights: Distribution network transformation is trending, and the power distribution business is ready to go. Driven by the development of distributed new energy sources and new loads, distribution network investment is expanding year by year. According to the China Telecommunication Union, the national distribution grid invested about 290.2 billion yuan in '23, +5.4% over the same period last year, accounting for 55.0%. According to the State Grid e-commerce platform, the winning bid amount for materials from January to September '24 was +50.60% compared to the same period, which is significantly faster than in '23 (+20.7%). Documents such as the “Implementation Plan for High-Quality Distribution Grid Development Actions (2024-2027)” in '24 require further acceleration of the upgrading of distribution grids. The company has a comprehensive layout of power distribution products. According to the State Grid e-commerce platform, the company ranked TOP10 in terms of market share in 23 and the TOP5 market share of columnar circuit breakers. It is expected to enjoy the dividends of high industry growth+increased market share.
Cornerstone business: Scheduling demand can be expected to expand, the share of power transmission and transformation is actively increasing, and electricity consumption is growing steadily.
Scheduling & Cloudification: The company takes the lead in the national grid market survey, and the South Grid participated in the general survey construction. The development of new energy sources is expected to drive demand expansion. Transmission and transformation automation: According to the State Grid e-commerce platform, the first five batches had a market share of 3.96% in the first 24 years, and there is still room for improvement in the future. Electricity consumption: There is still room for growth in domestic electricity meter demand, and we expect the number of tenders to grow to 0.09-0.1 billion units in '25.
Emerging businesses: Actively deploying energy storage and virtual power plants. New energy & energy storage: Relaxation in domestic consumption rates has brought room for growth in PV installations. The scale of installed energy storage continues to increase, and strong industry demand is driving high business growth. Virtual power plant: The company has deep cooperation with the Southern Grid and has accumulated rich project experience.
Profit forecast and investment advice: Expected net profit of 0.653/0.82/0.989 billion yuan for 24-26, +20.6%/25.7%/20.6% YoY. Refer to comparable companies and give the company a net profit of 25x PE for 24 years, corresponding to a reasonable value of 12.17 yuan/share. First coverage, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: grid investment falls short of expectations; risk of increased market competition; risk of fluctuating raw material prices.
