但别高兴太早。债券基金巨头——太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）发出警告称，特朗普回归后的政策计划可能导致通胀加剧及经济过热，并阻碍美联储降息进程，这对股市来说是个危险信号。Source: Wall Street See
Author: Long Yue.
Pimco warns that the post-election surge in US stocks may face a reversal. Trump's policy plans could lead to intensified inflation, overheating of the economy, and hinder the Fed's interest rate cut process. Risk assets should not be blindly optimistic.
Trump's election victory has pushed expectations for corporate tax cuts and regulatory relaxation. Overnight, the three major US stock indices all hit record highs, with the US stock market performing its best in a year for the whole week.
But don't be too happy too soon. Bond fund giant - Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) has issued a warning that Trump's return policy plans could lead to exacerbated inflation and overheating of the economy, hindering the Fed's rate-cutting process, which is a dangerous signal for the stock market.
PIMCO's Chief Investment Officer Dan Ivascyn said that with Trump's election victory, the US stock market may experience a reversal after a rapid surge. At a time when the US economy is strong, Trump's "re-inflation" policies may trigger inflation issues, and risky assets should not be blindly optimistic.
The situation is not as simple as it seems on the surface, nor is it a one-way "re-inflation" trade, risky assets should not be blindly optimistic. You need to remain cautious about the results you expect.
Market analysis believes that if Trump governs as expected by implementing established policies of imposing tariffs, cutting corporate taxes, and increasing spending, the risk of inflation in the United States will further escalate. Ivascyn stated that Trump's policies, when introduced during a strong US economy, could lead to economic overheating.
The timing of Trump's policies coming into effect is when the economic growth momentum is strong enough, which may lead to economic overheating.
At the same time, Trump's victory is changing the market's expectations of a Fed interest rate cut.
Currently, there are signs of the Fed slowing down its pace of easing. A few days ago, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled. The Fed stated that if the economy remains strong and the inflation rate does not continue to move towards 2%, it can more slowly reduce policy restrictions (i.e. slower rate cuts).
Market pricing this week shows that traders are starting to reduce bets on the Fed's loose policy in 2025, with expectations of less than 100 basis points of rate cuts by the end of next year.
Ivascyn said that interest rate cuts may pause, and the sharp rise in U.S. stocks after the election looks fragile. He said:
We believe this means: one should be more cautious in valuing risk assets.
Editor/Jeffy
