Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.
Author: Zhuang Lijia.

This week, within the largest banks in the USA, the mood has shifted from cautious optimism to jubilation as they see the prospect of relief from regulators in the Biden era. On the Wednesday when Trump declared victory, bank stocks surged on the US stock market. $KBW Nasdaq Bank Index (.BKX.US)$ In terms of news, the iPhone 16 series is expected to be released in September 2024 and may be officially unveiled on September 10. Soochow Securities' research report also pointed out that with August entering the peak season for iPhone new component stocking, production and delivery are expected to accelerate, and the market is highly concerned about the launch of the iPhone 16 series in September.

In recent years, stricter regulations led by higher capital requirements known as the 'final' rules of Basel III have united the banking industry to fight back in unprecedented ways. Major banks and their industry associations have invested millions in lobbying efforts, making concessions when the Federal Reserve signaled a looser version.

This looser version has not yet been made public. Senior banking executives believe that this proposal is almost dead, despite regulatory agencies stating that they will strive to implement it regardless of the election outcome. Former Federal Reserve Director and later Chair of Wells Fargo & Co's board of directors, Betsy Duke, stated: 'They are unlikely to reach consensus on the new proposal, and even if they could, there is not enough time to announce it and act upon it before the new government takes office.'

In theory, the incoming Trump administration will be able to replace the heads of the Currency Comptroller's Office and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on the first day in office, at least on an interim basis. These officials are crucial in the proposal and implementation of new capital requirements. Banks are already seizing the opportunity to advocate for more bank-friendly appointments in the industry.

A senior executive at a large bank stated that they are looking forward to a more predictable regulatory environment, less driven by enforcement actions and public relations activities, and more focused on clear rules. However, they also cautioned that regulatory agencies may push forward a public agenda that could hinder diversity and inclusion efforts, as well as investments related to environmental, social, and governance indicators.

Wall Street insiders point out that while the Trump administration is expected to significantly relax regulations, some Republicans are inclined to tighten capital requirements. The initial plan would require the eight largest banks in the USA to increase their capital by around 9%, roughly half of what the regulatory agencies initially proposed. If this plan is abandoned or significantly reduced again, it could complicate overseas issues. The EU has already postponed a key part of the capital rules affecting bank trading activities for a year to avoid putting its banks at a disadvantage. In September this year, the United Kingdom announced a delay of the entire plan until 2026.

Reports suggest that President Trump's election may compel the EU and the United Kingdom to relax or postpone these regulations again, which regulatory agencies may resist. Jurisdictions agreeing to adopt standards set by the Basel Committee in signing reform agreements may be scored on their compliance thereafter - reforms dating back to the financial crisis period.

Although the issues have been looming, with this week's election results coming out, an excitement is spreading across Wall Street. People are starting to anticipate a resurgence in merger and acquisition activity, with banks also earning hefty fees from deal-making. Over the past seven quarters, JPMorgan's Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum has repeatedly stated that the regulatory environment has hindered the development of M&A business. Today, bankers expect a resurgence in deal-making and initial public offering (IPO) activity. For regional banks, this also puts them back at the negotiation table.

Customer activities surrounding policy changes may also boost trading departments. If Trump's tariff policy becomes a reality, it could lead to market volatility. During his first term in office, Trump occasionally used a social media post to influence the market. $Citigroup (C.US)$ CEO Jane Fraser stated: "Overall, we expect this to be favorable for economic growth. As for the investment banking environment, the game is on."

Editor/Jeffy