Source: Wall Street See
Authors: Fang Jia Yao, Li Dan, Du Yu, Zhang Yaqi, Long Yue

The preliminary value of the November University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the United States is 73, reaching a seven-month high, with short-term inflation expectations falling to nearly a four-year low. Better-than-expected economic data, coupled with the support of the "Trump trade" and the Fed rate cut this week, the three major US stock indices hit new highs, with the S&P and Dow posting their best weekly performance in a year. Investors generally believe that the Trump administration's policies of relaxing regulation, increasing M&A, and tax cuts will be beneficial for economic growth and risk assets. The US dollar index has risen for six consecutive weeks, and Bitcoin has hit a new high.

However, the market expects that the persistent growth of the massive federal government deficit, faster economic growth, and new tariffs will drive inflation higher. In addition, on Thursday, Fed Chair Powell hinted at an open attitude towards pausing rate cuts, suggesting that future rate cuts may be appropriate to slow down, leading to a more uncertain Fed rate path than the week before the election. The current market expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 64.9%. Looking ahead, the market will focus on next week's US CPI and retail sales data.

On Friday, November 8, the entire week, with the "Trump trade" and the Fed rate cut supporting the three major US stock indices hitting new highs, the Dow and S&P 500 posted their best single-week performance in a year. On Friday, the Dow broke through 44,000 points for the first time, the S&P 500 rose to above 6,000 points for the first time this year, marking the 50th new high of the year, but dragged down by most chip and tech stocks, the Nasdaq barely closed higher but still hit a new high. Boosted by financial stocks, the Russell small-cap stocks rose 0.71% on Friday and rose 8.57% for the week, outperforming the rest of the indices, marking the best single-week performance since April 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic hit. Most sectors rose, with only the telecommunications, technology, and materials sectors falling, while utilities, real estate, and consumer staples sectors led the gains, this week due to the relaxation of regulation favoring Trump policies, financial and energy stocks performed well. Supporting the "Trump trade," Trump Media Technology (DJT) rose 15.22% on Friday, while Tesla surged over 29% for the week. The China concept index fell by over 5% at one point, with Fangdd Network dropping over 21%:

• The three major US stock indices rose. The S&P 500 index rose by 22.44 points, or 0.38%, to 5995.54, with a weekly rise of 4.66%. The Dow, closely related to the economic cycle, rose by 259.65 points, or 0.59%, to 43988.99, with a weekly rise of 4.61%. The Nasdaq, dominated by tech stocks, rose by 17.32 points, or 0.09%, to 19286.78, with a weekly rise of 5.74%. The Nasdaq 100 index rose by 0.07%, with a weekly rise of 5.41%. The Nasdaq Tech Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of Nasdaq 100 tech components, fell by 0.62%. The Russell 2000 small-cap stock index, more sensitive to the economic cycle, rose by 0.71%, with a weekly rise of 8.57%. The VIX fear index fell by 1.71% to 14.94%.

• Most U.S. industry ETFs closed higher. Utility ETFs rose nearly 2%, consumer discretionary ETFs rose nearly 1.5%, global aviation industry ETFs and daily consumer goods ETFs each rose over 1%, financial industry ETFs rose by close to 1%, medical industry ETFs, energy industry ETFs, biotechnology index ETFs, regional bank ETFs, and bank ETFs all rose at least 0.5%. Meanwhile, internet stock index ETF fell nearly 1%, and semiconductor ETF fell over 0.5%.

• On the investment research strategy front: Morgan Asset Management has warned that after Trump's election, market expectations of his policies potentially causing inflation to rise could lead to the 10-year U.S. bond yield reaching back to 5%, which could have a negative impact on the U.S. stock market. Although the yield has fallen slightly after reaching 4.48%, if Trump's policies are implemented, the yield could potentially rise further, prompting investors to shift funds from the stock market to the bond market.

• Most of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index were up this week. The materials sector fell by 0.91%, the telecommunications sector fell by 0.66%, the information technology/technology sector fell by 0.34%, the energy sector rose by 0.44%, the healthcare sector rose by 0.71%, the financial sector rose by 0.78%, the industrial sector rose by 1.01%, the consumer discretionary sector rose by 1.23%, the consumer staples sector rose by 1.45%, the real estate sector rose by 1.66%, and the utilities sector rose by 1.79%.

• "Tech Seven Sisters" saw only Tesla closing up on Friday. Tesla closed up by 8.19%, with a weekly gain of 29.01%, closing market cap at $1.03 trillion, surpassing $1 trillion for the first time since 2022. CEO Musk's net worth exceeded $300 billion for the first time since 2022. Apple closed down by 0.12%, with a weekly gain of 1.93%. Meta closed down by 0.4%, with a weekly gain of 3.91%. Microsoft closed down by 0.68%, with a weekly gain of 2.97%. Nvidia hit a new high during the day but closed down by 0.84%, with a weekly gain of 9.03%. Amazon closed down by 0.89%, with a weekly gain of 5.18%, Chairman Bezos cashed out $1.23 billion from Amazon. Google A closed down by 1.33%, with a weekly gain of 4.12%.

• Most chip stocks declined. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 0.81%, with a weekly gain of 5.78%. Industry ETF SOXX fell by 0.75%. Nvidia's double bullish ETF fell by 1.77%. AMD fell by 1.25%, Broadcom fell by 0.09%. Arm Holdings fell by 2.1%. Micron Technology fell by 1.33%, Intel fell by 0.11%. ASML ADR fell by 1.14%. Taiwan Semiconductor ADR closed flat, with October sales rising by 29.2% year-on-year, the lowest growth rate since February. Qualcomm fell by 1.16%, ON Semiconductor fell by 2.28%, KLA Corp rose by 0.18%, Wolfspeed rose by 20.41%.

• AI concept stocks fluctuated. Super Micro Computer fell by 3.77%, CrowdStrike fell by 0.23%, Snowflake fell by 2.15%, Serve Robotics fell by 16.53%, Dell Technologies fell by 2.64%, SoundHound AI, a AI voice company held by Nvidia, rose by 3.6%, BigBear.ai rose by 1.15%, Palantir rose by 4.49%, Oracle rose by 1.55%, BullFrog AI closed flat, C3.ai rose by 0.15%.

• Chinese concept stocks generally declined. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 4.74%, closing at 6909.65 points, with a weekly cumulative decline of 0.55%. In the ETFs, the FTSE China 3x Bull ETF (YINN) fell by 16.61%, with a weekly decline of 3.80%; the China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) fell by 6.71%, with a weekly decline of 0.50%; the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) fell by 5.41%, with a weekly increase of 4.24%. The FTSE A50 futures contract continued to fall by 0.87%, closing at 13549.000 points.

• Among popular Chinese concept stocks, Xpeng rose by 1.9%, while Fangdd Network fell by 21.74%, Zeekr fell by 2.51%, Li Auto Inc fell by 7.65%, Nio Inc fell by 4.14%. Daqo New Energy fell by 4.11%, Trip.com fell by 4.31%, Alibaba fell by 5.94%, Baidu fell by 4.88%, Bilibili fell by 6.38%, NetEase fell by 5.42%, JD.com fell by 6.99%, New Oriental fell by 1.63%, Pinduoduo fell by 6.4%.

• Photovoltaic stocks were bleak on Friday and the whole week, as investors feared Trump would embrace fossil fuels again. Sunrun fell by 11.81%, hitting a new closing low since May 1st, with a weekly cumulative decline of 30.69%; SolarEdge dropped by 9.07%, Canadian Solar ADR fell by 7.84%, with a weekly decline of 19.97%, approaching the performance of the week of June 8, 2018 (which saw a 21.35% drop); photovoltaic power inverter supplier Enphase Energy fell by 6.55%, with a weekly cumulative decline of 19.92%; JinkoSolar ADR fell by 6.15%, with a weekly decline of 15.78%; Daqo New Energy ADR fell by 4.11%, with a weekly decline of 7.54%; Solar ETF fell by 4.1%, with a weekly decline of 9.42%; TigerSoft ADR fell by 1.64%, First Solar fell by 1.41%, with a weekly decline of 5.37%.

• Other key stocks: (1) Trump Media & Technology (DJT) rose by 15.22%, with Trump stating no intentions to sell holdings. (2) Axon, which sells body cameras, rose by over 28% on the launch of its 'AI era plan', marking the best single-day performance since November 2008.

Market concerns about Trump implementing tariff plans dragged down European stock markets this week, with most sectors falling on Friday. Mining stocks fell by 4.2%, leading the decline. Following its second full year profit warning in a month, UK housing construction giant Vistry's stock price plummeted by 15.51%; The pan-European index saw its third consecutive weekly decline, while the Eurozone blue-chip index's four-week decline marked the longest in a year.

• The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell by 0.65%, with a weekly cumulative decline of 0.84%, marking the third consecutive weekly decline. The Eurozone STOXX 50 index fell by 1.01%, with a weekly decline of 1.54%, marking a four-week consecutive decline, the longest since late October last year. The FTSE All-World 300 Index fell by 0.67%, with a weekly decline of 0.88%.

• Germany's DAX 30 index fell by 0.76%, with a weekly cumulative decline of 0.21%. France's CAC 40 index fell by 1.17%, with a weekly decline of 0.95%. The Netherlands' AEX index fell by 0.50%, with a weekly decline of 1.07%. Italy's FTSE MIB index fell by 0.48%, with a weekly decline of 2.48%. The UK's FTSE 100 index fell by 0.84%, with a weekly decline of 1.28%. Spain's IBEX 35 index fell by 0.16%, with a weekly decline of 2.46%.

Although Trump's re-election supported the surge in US bond yields on Wednesday, the 10-year US bond yields fell more than 8 basis points due to traders unwinding the 'Trump trade' throughout the week, as well as strong auctions of 10-year US bonds, and the Fed's rate cut. However, the two-year US bond yields rose by approximately 5 basis points this week, accumulating more than 4 basis points in total.

• US Bonds: At the closing, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bonds dropped by 2.72 basis points to 4.2985%, with a cumulative decrease of 8.32 basis points for the week. The overall trend during the week showed an inverted U-shape, opening low at 4.2481% on November 6th at 08:00 (approximately after the US election voting stage had ended), then quickly rebounded. It rose to 4.4768% at 20:27 on the 6th. The two-year US bond yield rose by 4.83 basis points to 4.2477%, with a total increase of 4.44 basis points for the week. It dropped to 4.1268% on November 4th at 23:18, sharply rebounding after the end of the election voting day, and rose to 4.3073% at 11:00 on the 6th.

• Goldman Sachs has adjusted its policy forecast for the Fed in 2025, expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June and September after March, instead of the previous forecast of May and June. The Fed may wish to be more cautious in its rate cut actions, and it is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points each at the meetings in December, January, and March. JPMorgan strategists predict that the Fed will end quantitative tightening (QT) in the first quarter of 2025, not by the end of 2024 as previously predicted.

• Euro Bonds: At the closing, the yield on the 10-year German bonds fell by 7.8 basis points to 2.367%, with a cumulative decrease of 3.8 basis points for the week. The two-year German bond yield dropped by 2.9 basis points to 2.185%, with a total decrease of 6.2 basis points for the week. The yield on 10-year UK bonds dropped by 6.3 basis points, with a cumulative decrease of 1.0 basis point for the week. The two-year UK bond yield dropped by 2.2 basis points, with a total decrease of 0.3 basis points for the week. The yield on 10-year French bonds fell by 8.7 basis points, with a cumulative decrease of 4.4 basis points for the week. The yield on 10-year Italian bonds fell by 7.8 basis points, with a cumulative decrease of 3.0 basis points for the week.

"Trump trade" ignited the US dollar, the DXY US dollar index rose more than 0.6% this week, rising for six consecutive weeks, marking the longest weekly increase since the end of June. The offshore renminbi fell by about 660 points throughout the week, approaching 7.21 yuan at one point. Bitcoin hit historical highs for three consecutive days after Trump's re-election, surging past $0.077 million during trading, with an accumulated increase of over 10% for the week.

• US Dollar: The DXY US Dollar Index rose by 0.42% at the close to 104.951 points, with a weekly accumulation of 0.64%. The trading range for the week was between 103.373-105.441 points. Following the end of the US election voting day (November 5th), the opening gap was high, and overall, Bloomberg data shows that investors were indifferent to a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed. The Bloomberg dollar index rose by 0.61% to 1267.77 points, posting a 0.31% weekly increase, with a trading range for the week between 1253.12-1275.53 points, without significant gaps in line with the ICE US dollar index.

• Non-dollar currencies: the Euro against the US Dollar fell by 0.81%, to 1.0719, accumulating a drop of 1.05% this week. It rose to 1.0937 on November 6 at 07:54, then plunged to a weekly low of 1.0683 at 21:06 on the same day. Investors seem indifferent to the stability of the German political situation; the British Pound against the US Dollar fell by 0.52%, to 1.2920, accumulating a drop of 0.04% this week. It rose to 1.3048 on November 6 at 07:57, then fell to 1.2834 at 22:30 on the same day (US stock market opening time); the US Dollar against the Swiss Franc rose by 0.37%, to 0.8758, accumulating a rise of 0.69% this week. Among commodity currencies, the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar fell by 1.42%, accumulating a rise of 0.38% this week; the New Zealand Dollar against the US Dollar fell by 0.96%, accumulating a rise of 0.08% this week; the US Dollar against the Canadian Dollar rose by 0.35%, accumulating a drop of 0.31% this week, with two V-shaped trends appearing during the period. The Swedish Krona against the US Dollar fell by 1.26%, accumulating a drop of 0.66% this week; the Norwegian Krone against the US Dollar fell by 1.23%, accumulating a rise of 0.58% this week.

• Yen: The Japanese Yen against the US Dollar rose by 0.31% at the close, to 152.63 Yen, accumulating a 0.24% rise this week. On November 6 (the day of Trump's victory), it dropped below 154 Yen from 151.30 Yen by the end of the day.

• Offshore Renminbi (CNH): The offshore Renminbi against the US Dollar fell by 530 points at the close, to 7.2013 Yuan, trading overall between 7.1457-7.2094 Yuan intraday. It broke the consolidation status of the first two trading days of the week on November 6, dropping from 7.0935 Yuan to below 7.2 Yuan, with a weekly drop of about 660 points.

• Cryptocurrencies: The largest market capitalization leader Bitcoin fell by 0.10% at the close, with a 10.57% cumulative increase this week. It traded between 67140.00-77930.00 US dollars throughout the week, with a significant increase after the US election voting day (November 5), which was consolidated in the remaining time of the week. In the last seven natural days, the spot Bitcoin accumulated an increase of about 10.60%, currently at 76530 US dollars, also breaking the recent narrow fluctuation trend near the 0.07 million US dollar level on November 6. The second largest Ethereum futures rose by 1.68%, to 2966.00 US dollars, accumulating a 17.21% increase this week. It rebounded on November 6 and continued to oscillate and rise, trading between 2370.00-3010.50 US dollars during the week.

Despite Trump's re-election victory on Wednesday boosting the US dollar, US EIA crude supply hit a new high since August, coupled with the weakening of hurricane risks in the US on Friday, dragged down oil prices for the entire week. However, on Monday, OPEC+ announced the postponement of production increases for a month, while on Tuesday and Thursday, profit-taking from the 'Trump trade' weakened the US dollar, supporting oil prices to rise over 1% for the week. Netherlands natural gas futures surged over 8% this week:

• US Oil: WTI December crude oil futures fell by $1.98, a decrease of nearly 2.74%, to $70.38 per barrel. Accumulated a 1.28% increase for the week. US oil maintained a downward trend throughout the day, with US stocks plunging nearly 3.3% to break through the $70 barrier during early trading hours.

• Brent Crude: Brent January crude oil futures fell by $1.76, a decrease of nearly 2.33%, to $73.87 per barrel. Accumulated a 1.05% increase for the week. Brent oil maintained a downward trend all day, with US stocks falling nearly 2.8% to pressure $73.40 during early trading hours.

• Natural Gas: US December natural gas futures fell by over 0.89%, at $2.6690 per million British thermal units. Accumulated a 0.23% increase for the week. Europe's TTF Netherlands natural gas futures were up 1.32%, at 42.150 euros per megawatt-hour, with a week-on-week increase of 8.35%. ICE UK natural gas futures rose by 2.22%, at 106.640 pence per kilocalorie, with a cumulative increase of 7.53% for the week.

The uncertainty before the elections on Monday and Tuesday sparked safe-haven demand, sending spot gold prices higher for two consecutive days. Additionally, Powell's 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday supported a rise in spot gold by over 1.9%, reclaiming over half of the losses from 'Trump's election day.' However, looking at the whole week, the 'Trump trade' strengthened the US dollar, along with the Fed indicating openness to pause rate cuts, leading the market to drastically cut rate cut expectations. This caused spot gold to fall by 1.85% for the week, marking the largest weekly decline in over five months for gold, silver, and copper. All London industrial metals fell, with zinc falling by more than 2.9% for the week:

• Gold: COMEX December gold futures fell 0.52% to $2691.60 per ounce at the close, with a weekly decline of 2.09%. Spot gold fell 0.81% at the close, at $2684.77 per ounce, accumulating a 1.85% decline for the week. The signs of Trump's victory only became apparent on November 6th, causing a significant dive, dropping to $2643.47 on November 7th, before rebounding to $2710 around the time of the Fed's announcement of a 25 basis point rate cut.

• Silver: COMEX December silver futures fell 2.20% to $31.410 per ounce at the close, a weekly decline of 3.89%. Spot silver fell 2.30% at the close, to $31.3071 per ounce, a weekly decline of 3.64%, trading overall in the range of $32.9228-$30.8323, with a significant downturn on November 6th.

• In London's industrial metals market, LME copper, LME aluminum, and LME zinc all closed down over 2% on Friday: LME copper fell $220, a drop of over 2.27%, to $9444 per ton, with a weekly decline exceeding 1.31%. COMEX copper futures fell 2.81%, to $4.3125 per pound, a weekly decline of 1.35%. LME aluminum fell $74, a drop of over 2.74%, to $2620 per ton. LME zinc fell $72, a drop of around 2.36%, to $2980 per ton, with a weekly decline of 2.93%. LME lead fell $14, to $2024 per ton, a weekly decline of 1.46%. LME nickel fell $190, a drop of over 1.14%, to $16397 per ton, with a weekly increase of 2.84%. LME tin fell $169, to $31648 per ton. LME cobalt remained flat, at $24300 per ton.

Editor/Jeffy