其中，销售/管理/财务/研发费用率分别为10.64%/4.15%0.24%/3.64%，同比变动-6.12 pct /-1.04 pct /+3.97 pct /-0.36pct。24Q3 单季度期间费用率为18.85%，同比变动-4.53pct。其中，销售/管理/财务/研发费用率分别为8.33%/3.68%/3.63%/3.22%/ ， 同比变动-8.13 pct /-0.90 pct /+4.80 pct/-0.31pct。Key points of investment:
Incidents. The company released a three-quarter report. The company's revenue for 2024Q1-Q3 was 2.22 billion yuan, +64.87% YoY, net profit to mother was 0.301 billion yuan, YoY +47.4%, net profit before non-return to mother was 0.295 billion yuan, YoY +51.54%, 24Q3 single quarter revenue was 8.29, +47.61% YoY, net profit to mother 0.119 billion yuan, YoY + 77.39%
Gross margin declined year on year, and expense ratio control was good. The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024Q1-Q3 were 36.32%/13.57%, with year-on-year changes of -4.86/-1.61pct; among them, 24Q3 gross margin/net margin for the single quarter was 36.99%/14.39%, -4.02pct/+1.94pct, and +2.00pct/-0.67pct month-on-month, respectively. The cost rate during 2024Q1-Q3 was 18.67%, a year-on-year change of -3.55pct.
Among them, the sales/management/finance/R&D expense rates were 10.64%/4.15% 0.24%/3.64%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -6.12 pct/-1.04 pct/+3.97 pct/-0.36pct. The cost rate for the 24Q3 period was 18.85%, a year-on-year change of -4.53pct. Among them, the sales/management/finance/R&D expense rates were 8.33%/3.68%/3.63%/3.22%/, with year-on-year changes of -8.13 pct/-0.90 pct/+4.80 pct/-0.31 pct.
Inventories increased year over year in the first three quarters. The company's operating cash flow for 2024Q1-Q3 was 0.232 billion yuan, +52.26% year on year, and operating cash flow for the 24Q3 single quarter was -0.055 billion yuan; as of the end of September 2024, the company's contract debt was 0.031 billion yuan, -4.41% year over year; inventory was 1.198 billion yuan, +47.41% year over year.
The deployment of overseas production capacity was accelerated, and the US electric golf cart production line was officially put into operation. 1) In terms of US production capacity, on October 5, Taotao Auto's new electric golf cart production line in Texas, USA was officially put into operation. The Texas factory, as Taotao Auto's self-purchased production base in North America, only took 104 days from preparation to the launch of the first car, fully demonstrating the company's outstanding execution, marking significant progress in the company's “Made in North America +” strategy, driving the company's global layout forward. 2) In terms of production capacity in Vietnam, the first phase of base construction has entered the final stage, and small-batch trial production has begun.
Profit forecast: We expect the company to achieve operating income of 3.101/4.177/5.277 billion yuan in 2024/2025/2026, up 44.6%/34.7%/26.3% year on year; net profit to mother is 0.385/0.471/0.591 billion yuan, up 37.4%/25.3% year on year. Comparatively, the company's average PE valuation in 2024 was 20.96 times. We consider the company's rapid release of new products, high cost performance and channel advantages, and good growth. The company was given a PE valuation of 20-22 times in 2024, with a reasonable value range of 70.20-77.22 yuan/share (the company's EPS is estimated to be 3.51 yuan in 2024), and a reasonable market value range of 7.7-8.5 billion yuan, giving it a “superior to the market” rating. Referring to the PB valuation, according to our reasonable value range, the company's 2024 PB was 2.31 to 2.54 times (the average PB value of a comparable company in 2024 was 3.79), considering that the company's growth is good and the valuation is reasonable.
Risk warning: the risk of macroeconomic fluctuations, the company's release of new products falling short of expectations, the risk of tariffs and trade friction, the risk of increased competition in the tariff industry, etc.