11月7日周五美股盘中，芝商所（CME）的美联储观察工具显示，联邦基金利率期货市场的交易员们预计，今年12月美联储连续第二次降息25个基点的概率接近65%，保持当前利率不变、即暂停降息的概率超过35%。Source: Wall Street See
Before the conference, some comments suggested that Nvidia may not announce any breakthrough achievements, but Huang Renxun and other Nvidia executives may take this opportunity to emphasize the achievements of Nvidia in the AI boom and demonstrate the company's long-term growth prospects. Some comments also believe that any relevant comments by Huang Renxun may become a driving force for the stock price. Huang Renxun's comments on AI chips during his recent trip to Asia have caused the stock price to rebound, and his related comments may boost market sentiment and make investors feel that Nvidia has not yet reached its revenue peak.
Cme tools show that the probability of pausing rate cuts in December is about 35% in the futures market this Friday, and the probability of pausing in January next year is about 78%. The probabilities announced by the Federal Reserve before the rate cuts on Thursday are 33% and 67% respectively. Goldman Sachs currently predicts rate cuts of 25 basis points in June and September next year, compared to the previous forecast of May and June.
After the Fed's FOMC meeting this week, as expected by the market, the interest rates were cut by 25 basis points. Although the Fed did not hint at pausing the action next, it seems that Wall Street's bet on pausing rate cuts is quietly increasing.
During the regular trading hours of US stocks on Friday, November 7th, the Fed observation tool from the CME showed that traders in the federal funds interest rates futures market expected a close to 65% probability of a second consecutive 25 basis points rate cut by the Fed in December this year, with the probability of keeping the current rate unchanged, or pausing the rate cuts, exceeding 35%.
Before the Fed announced the decision to cut rates by 25 basis points during the midday trading session of US stocks this Thursday, the above-mentioned tool from CME showed a probability of another 25 basis points rate cut in December, with a 33% probability of pausing rate cuts for that month. In other words, investors have increased their bets on pausing rate cuts in December.
The greater expectation probability appears in January. On Friday of this week, the CME tool shows that the probability of the Fed's federal funds interest rate range remaining at 4.5% to 4.75% by January is nearly 22%. In other words, the probability of pausing rate cuts in January slightly exceeds 78%. Before the Fed announced the rate cut this Thursday, the CME tool showed an expected probability of pausing rate cuts in January at 67%.
Goldman Sachs' economists also adjusted their expectations for rate cuts next year after the Fed meeting. They expect the Fed's pace of rate cuts to slow down. In a report on Thursday, November 7th, led by Goldman Sachs' Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, the team wrote that after the 25 basis points rate cut by the Fed, they may wish to be more cautious in their actions.
Goldman Sachs currently expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at the meetings in December, January, and March, then cut rates by 25 basis points in June and September next year. Previously, Goldman Sachs forecasted rate cuts of 25 basis points each in May and June.
Editor/Jeffy
