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美股牛市加速进行中!标普、纳指齐创新高,“特朗普交易”会持续多久?

Bull market in US stocks is accelerating! S&P, Nasdaq hit new highs together, how long will the "Trump trade" last?

Futu News ·  Nov 8 21:30

With the impact of Trump's winning the election and the Federal Reserve's expected 25 basis point rate cut, US stocks have once again reached a new all-time high.

Among them, $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ For the first time closing above 19,000 points, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ approaching the key level of 6,000 points, this also marks the 49th historical high of the s&p 500 index set this year.

Meanwhile, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Amazon (AMZN.US)$Once again refreshing the history of the US stocks, in which Nvidia became the first company in history to have a market cap exceeding $3.6 trillion, while also holding the title as the world's largest company.

Amid the global AI wave, Nvidia has always been the biggest winner in the US stock market. In November alone, Nvidia's stock price has already risen by 12%, and since the beginning of 2024, the company's market cap has doubled.

For investors of Nvidia, the next major milestone is on November 20th - when Nvidia will release its earnings report. Data from LSEG shows that analysts expect on average that its quarterly revenue will increase by over 80% year-on-year, reaching $32.9 billion.

Is the bull market in US stocks still in its infancy?

With the dust settling from the US election, whether the bull market can continue remains one of the most concerning topics for investors.

Evercore ISI analysts stated that the bull market in US stocks is still in its early stages, and the uptrend will accelerate during the upcoming term of President Trump. The firm predicts that the S&P 500 index will reach 6600 points by the end of June next year, indicating an 11% upward potential from the current level.

The bank pointed out that measures such as Trump relaxing regulations and reducing corporate taxes would boost commercial activities and cause the stock market to soar. It indicates,

Data shows that in a bull market environment, the average increase in the stock market over 50 months is as high as 152%, while the current market has only risen by 65% in the past 25 months. Therefore, the current U.S. stock bull market is "still in its infancy stage."

With the advantage of the Republican Party sweeping Congress gradually becoming evident, a Goldman Sachs analyst stated that a key factor driving the stock market higher in the short term is the reduction of political uncertainty, which typically leads to strong year-end returns in presidential election years. By the end of 2024, the S&P 500 index is expected to reach around 6015 points; investors will increase their stock positions after the election.

French Industrial Bank believes that 'Trump trades are at their peak', and U.S. cyclical trades should last at least until the inauguration day (January 20, 2025), while stocks dependent on Fed rate cuts, such as small-cap stocks, will need to be reassessed by then.

Morgan Stanley, on the other hand, anticipates that as concerns about missing out on the year-end market rally due to the end of the U.S. presidential election and the end of the year take effect, the S&P 500 index may continue to rise in the final stages of 2024. However, the warning is also given that as there are no clear catalysts in sight, the enthusiasm for this stock market surge may diminish with the arrival of 2025.

Although the market generally believes that a Trump victory will boost the U.S. stocks because his proposal to lower corporate taxes would benefit corporate profits. However, some analysts are concerned that some of Trump's policies (imposing tariffs on foreign countries and restricting immigration) may drive inflation and higher interest rates, posing risks to the stock market.

Editor/Somer

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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