According to Zhixun Finance APP, Bernstein analysts believe that if Russian natural gas continues to flow through Ukraine to Europe, the impact on this year's winter fuel prices in Europe will be very limited. Although researchers believe that the natural gas transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia will not be extended to the end of this year, any unexpected extension would only bring about an additional supply of around 5 billion cubic meters before the end of the heating season. Irene Himona and other Bernstein analysts stated that this number is lower than the average monthly import volume so far in 2024.

Analysts said that in this scenario, the European benchmark futures prices in the remaining winter months will only be about 1.4% lower than the current levels.

Since the beginning of this year, European natural gas prices have fluctuated significantly as traders try to hedge risks, including the termination of the natural gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine. However, Europe has managed to accumulate sufficient reserves and achieve diversification of fuel sources, keeping its foundation relatively stable in the winter.

Sudden increases in demand due to cold weather could still affect the supply balance in Europe. Analysts indicate that continued supply will help the market "become more balanced, rather than causing market tension this winter due to a lack of incoming supply."

It is reported that Ukrainian officials have repeatedly stated that they will not renew the natural gas transit agreement with Russia, which is set to expire at the end of 2024. If the agreement expires, Europe's natural gas imports from Russia will decrease by about half next year.

Before the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted, Gazprom, the Russian natural gas company, supplied over a third of natural gas to Europe, but since then, the region has started to shift towards diversification of supplies. The EU now relies more on other sources, including Norway, North Africa, Azerbaijan, as well as liquefied natural gas from the global market.