Hot news

• In pre-market trading on Friday, the three major index futures are mixed, with only the Dow Jones slightly up.

• Pre-market trading shows divergent trends among growth tech stocks.

• China concept stocks fell before market.

• Is the demand for ai chips slowing down? Taiwan Semiconductor's sales in October increased by 29.2% year-on-year, the lowest growth rate since February.

$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ Up more than 1% in pre-market trading. Taiwan Semiconductor announced its sales for October. Sales in October reached 314.24 billion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year increase of 29.2%, and a month-on-month increase of 24.8%. In September, Taiwan Semiconductor's sales increased by nearly 40% year-on-year. From March to September earlier this year, the company's monthly sales growth rate exceeded 30%.

• Nvidia's market cap exceeds 3.6 trillion US dollars, refreshing the history of the US stock market

After US President Trump won the election, the US stock market surged for two consecutive days, while $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Also once again refreshing the history of the US stock market, becoming the first company in history with a market cap exceeding $3.6 trillion, while holding the title of the world's largest company. After this year's surge in stock price, Nvidia's market cap has surpassed the sum of the market caps of six well-known companies: Eli Lilly and Co, Walmart, JPMorgan, Visa, UnitedHealth Group, and Netflix.

• Starting at 0.1868 million yuan! He Xiaopeng says 'XPeng P7+ still has profit potential'

$XPeng (XPEV.US)$ Chairman and CEO He Xiaopeng stated that despite the official website server crash, XPeng P7+ received over 0.01 million pre-orders within 12 minutes, breaking XPeng's historical record for order speed. XPeng P7+ adopted an 'aggressive' pricing strategy. According to He Xiaopeng, even so, XPeng P7+ still has profit potential, just not much. On the evening of November 7th, XPeng P7+ released three new models: Long Range Max, Ultra Long Range Max, and Limited Edition Max, priced in the range of 0.1868 million to 0.2188 million yuan, with a starting price lowered by 0.023 million yuan compared to the initial price.

• Upstart's Q3 revenue was $0.162 billion, up 20% year-on-year.

$Upstart (UPST.US)$ Up over 17% in pre-market trading, the company's Q3 revenue was $0.162 billion, a 20% year-on-year increase, exceeding analysts' consensus expectation of $0.15 billion. Q4 revenue guidance is above expectations.

• SpaceX shareholder DXYZ rose nearly 10% in pre-market trading, with the Starship launch test successful.

Closed-end management investment company $Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ.US)$ Up nearly 10% in pre-market trading, on the news front, on October 13, 2024 Beijing time, SpaceX's Starship test launch was a complete success, with the booster successfully returning to the launch pad. As of June 30, 2024, 37.6% of the Destiny Tech100 portfolio is in SpaceX shares, potentially benefiting from the increase.

Global macro

• Market doubts about policy implementation, traders' enthusiasm for the "Trump trade" cools down.

As investors weigh whether Trump's policies align with his campaign promises, enthusiasm for the 'Trump trade' is gradually decreasing, with the dollar erasing most of its post-election gains, and the U.S. bond yields returning to recent ranges. Market volatility may arise as focus shifts to other major events. Vishnu Varathan, Senior Economist and Strategist at RHB Bank Singapore, said, 'Even the most fervent 'Trump trade' investors are taking a step back now, considering whether the stakes are too high at this point. Traders are pondering on the execution and how some of his policies are effectively communicated.'

• Trump's MAGA vision may encounter resistance! Powell staunchly defends the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Trump's advocated 'MAGA policy tone' advocates looser monetary policies such as lower interest rates and tax cuts, as well as pushing for a comprehensive return of manufacturing to the USA through radical trade protectionism policies. Many economists worry that after Trump officially takes office next year, he may leverage the Republican majority in the Senate to pressure Federal Reserve policymakers. Powell stated that he is ready to lead Federal Reserve policymakers in resisting politically-related pressures after Trump's return to the White House, and he expressed that if asked to 'resign', he will refuse to do so.

• The US government is reportedly intensifying talks with multiple companies in an effort to finalize chip legislation agreements during Biden's tenure.

According to foreign media, sources mentioned that the US government is actively negotiating to finalize chip legislation agreements with companies like Intel and Samsung Electronics before the end of Biden's term. The US Department of Commerce has allocated over 90% of the $39 billion subsidy under the '2022 Chips and Science Act', but only one binding agreement has been announced so far. It is reported that companies like TSMC and SMIC have concluded talks and are expected to announce the final funding results soon. Intel, Samsung Electronics, Micron Technology, and other companies are still discussing substantial details of the contract.

• Barclays: Expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in December, but the risk of pausing rate cuts is increasing.

Barclays released a research report indicating that based on the results of the US election, tariffs on imported goods are expected to increase and there will be stricter restrictions on imports. The bank expects these measures to raise its core PCE inflation forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2026 to 2.7% and 2.3%, while lowering GDP growth forecasts to 1.8% and 1.5% during the period. The bank expects the unemployment rate to fall to 3.9% by the end of next year, reflecting labor market tightening due to reduced immigration. It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in December to 4.25% to 4.5%, but believes that the risk of pausing rate cuts is increasing.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

11:00 p.m. Preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for November in the USA.

00:00 the next day Janet Bowman, a board member of the Federal Reserve, participates in a dialogue on the banking industry.

03:30 the next day Speech by 2025 FOMC voter and President of the St. Louis Fed, Musa Lem.

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