Matters:

The company released its three-quarter report. Net profit for the 3Q24 quarter was 0.081 billion yuan, +1.0% year-on-month, +8.9% month-on-month, net profit not attributable to mother 0.074 billion yuan, +4.9% year-on-year, and +9.4% month-on-month.

Commentary:

The company's third-quarter earnings report was in line with expectations. On the revenue side, 3Q24 was 0.345 billion yuan in a single quarter, -7.6% year-on-year, and -2.6% month-on-month. The month-on-month decline is expected to be mainly affected by the decline in sales in the fuel vehicle and heavy truck industry. On the gross margin side, 35.1%, YoY -1.3PP, month-on-month +1.0PP. On the expense ratio side, the cost rate for the period was 12.8%, +0.4PP year over year, and -0.1PP compared to month. Among them, sales, management, R&D, and finance expenses were 0.6%, 8.5%, 4.1%, and -0.4%, respectively. The month-on-month ratio was +0.1PP, -0.3PP, -0.2PP, and +0.3PP, respectively. In the end, the company's net profit for 3Q24 was 0.081 billion yuan, +1.0%, and +8.9% month-on-month, net profit of 0.074 billion yuan after deducting non-return to mother, +4.9% YoY, +9.4% month-on-month, net profit of 23.5%, YoY +1.7PP, and +2.5PP month-on-month, which is at a high historical level.

The first tier is expected to continue to provide steady growth. It mainly includes the original turbocharger core components, various precision components, and intelligent equipment and tooling businesses. It is the ballast stone for the company's steady development and the foundation for the company's transformation and upgrading. It is expected that the company will rely on the increase in turbocharging penetration rate (including hybrid) + the market share of the company's four categories of products to hedge against the decline in traditional internal combustion engines and achieve steady growth.

Anhui Best's production capacity is climbing at an accelerated pace, consolidating the company's second-tier NEV parts layout. Relying on the company's existing casting technology, precision machining technology, and fine management capabilities, the company established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Anhui Best in 2022 to lay out categories such as lightweight structural parts for new energy vehicles, high-value-added precision parts, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. The value of each category of bicycles is expected to be higher than previous turbocharger parts. 24Q3 Anhui Best's production capacity continues to rise at an accelerated pace, while continuously developing new products and developing new customers. Currently, customer factory inspection and certification work is being carried out, continuously consolidating the company's second-tier industrial layout.

Linear rolling functional components continue to advance, and third-tier market coverage continues to expand. Yuhua Precision Machinery, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company established in early 2022, continues to make steady progress in the fields of industrial parent machines, humanoid robots, and new energy vehicles. In terms of industrial mother machines, after high-precision screw pairs and guide rail pairs were successfully applied by well-known domestic machine tool manufacturers in the second quarter, batch rolling delivery orders were signed with well-known machine tool manufacturers in the third quarter. Among them, C0 grade screw pairs representing the highest manufacturing level of ball screw pairs achieved a breakthrough and received the first batch of orders from customers. The ball screw pair used in the EMB braking system of new energy vehicles has also completed the first customer delivery.

The planetary roller screw process, the core component of the linear actuator of humanoid robots, has been continuously optimized, the batch production process layout has been continuously improved, and the cooperative development of localized equipment required for key processes is progressing in an orderly manner.

Investment proposal: The company uses precision components as ballast stones and is actively expanding the NEV and industrial mother engine markets. We expect the company's net profit to be 0.31, 0.38, and 0.44 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of +15.5%, +23.3%, and +17.8%, corresponding to 32 times, 26 times, and 22 times PE. Considering that the growth prospects of the company's traditional business (mainly automobiles) and businesses such as screws are different, and the market also gives different valuation levels, we evaluate the company in segments. Among them, the traditional business is expected to grow further with the increase in the market share of autonomous vehicle companies, giving a net profit of 0.36 billion in 25 years, 30 times PE, corresponding to a target market value of 10.7 billion yuan; businesses such as screws are still in the development period, with an estimated revenue of 0.2 billion yuan, corresponding to a net profit of 0.02 billion. Considering that the market gives a certain valuation premium to the core components of industrial engines and robots, we give this portion 60 times the 25-year valuation, corresponding to a target market value of 1.2 billion yuan, in total The company's target market value for 2025 is 11.9 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 23.8 yuan, maintaining a “strong” rating.

Risk warning: New products are targeted, the pace of mass production is lower than expected, material price fluctuations, etc.