Investors in Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.7% to close at US$121 following the release of its quarterly results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$90b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Exxon Mobil surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$1.92 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, Exxon Mobil's 18 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$347.7b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 8.4% to US$8.31. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$346.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.44 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$131, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Exxon Mobil at US$149 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$105. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Exxon Mobil's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Exxon Mobil's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 0.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 12% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Exxon Mobil.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Exxon Mobil's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$131, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Exxon Mobil. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Exxon Mobil going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Exxon Mobil that you need to take into consideration.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
