A week ago, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ:RARE) came out with a strong set of third-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical beat expectations with revenues of US$139m arriving 3.1% ahead of forecasts. The company also reported a statutory loss of US$1.40, 5.7% smaller than was expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical's 20 analysts is for revenues of US$635.2m in 2025. This would reflect a huge 22% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are supposed to decline, shrinking 15% from last year to US$5.16. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$626.9m and US$5.34 per share in losses. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$92.57, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical at US$140 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$48.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 17% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 23% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 21% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
