磷酸铁锂电池占比提升，快充电池行业领先。为迎合市场需求，Q3 公司磷酸铁锂电池业务占比已提升至70%。24 年H1 发布的LFP 欣星驰电池充电倍率可达到6C，全场景实现10 分钟充电至80%电量，能量密度能达到450Wh/L，体积利用率超80%，处于行业领先水平。Exchange losses affected Q3 profit release, and after excluding the impact, the company's profit improved. The former 3Q company had revenue of 38.28 billion yuan, yoy +11.5%, net profit of 1.21 billion yuan, yoy +50.8%, mainly benefiting from the high consumer battery boom and the increase in the self-supply rate of consumer batteries, which led to a high increase in net profit to the mother. Q3 revenue was 14.36 billion, yoy +18.9%, net profit of 0.39 billion yuan, yoy +6.4%. Q3 had financial expenses of 0.23 billion in a single quarter, yoy +34.1%, and qoq +415.6%, mainly due to exchange losses.
Consumer batteries performed strongly, with a self-supply rate of over 35%. The company actively promotes the expansion of the consumer battery “pack+cell” model among customers. In the first 3Q, the self-supply rate of consumer batteries exceeded 35%. As the self-supply rate of the company's batteries increased, the profitability of the company's consumer batteries increased. Looking forward to the future, the company may benefit from a moderate recovery in the mobile phone market+AI phones, etc., boosting the growth of mobile phone battery capacity, compounding the further development of the company's laptop and mobile phone customers. At the same time, as the self-supply rate of batteries increases, gross margin increases.
Energy storage cell Q3 has been launched significantly, helping increase power+energy storage battery shipments. Energy storage cells were shipped about 1.5 GWhh in the third quarter of a single quarter. Shipments in the first two quarters were only 0.98 GWh, which was significant in Q3. We believe that at this stage, due to the small volume of energy storage cell shipments, profitability is poor, but with the steady increase in future energy storage cell volume+power battery shipments, the sector is about to turn a loss into profit.
The proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries has increased, leading the fast charging battery industry. In order to meet market demand, Q3's share of lithium iron phosphate battery business has increased to 70%. The charging ratio of the LFP Xinxingchi battery released on H1 in '24 can reach 6C, can be charged to 80% in 10 minutes in all scenarios, the energy density can reach 450Wh/L, and the volume utilization rate exceeds 80%, which is at the leading level in the industry.
Profit forecasting and investment ratings. We estimate that the company's net profit for 24-26 will be 1.741/2.067/2.558 billion yuan, respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.93/1.11/1.37 yuan, respectively. Comparable to the company's PE in 2024, we gave Sunwoda a 33-39 times PE valuation range for 2024, with a corresponding reasonable value range of 30.85-36.46 yuan. First coverage, giving an investment rating of “superior to the market”.
Risk warning: The growth rate of the energy storage market falls short of expectations, the growth rate of power batteries falls short of expectations, the growth rate of consumer batteries falls short of expectations, and the price war is too intense.
